Multi-criteria analysis of nuclear power in the global energy system: Assessing trade-offs between simultaneously attainable economic, environmental and social goals

To investigate the complex relationships among the energy-related challenges faced by humanity, we marry a large-scale energy systems model, MESSAGE, with a multi-criteria model analysis tool. Such an approach is applicable to other modelling frameworks and can significantly improve the analysis of multiple goals. We focus our study on nuclear power - a technology viewed differently by different stakeholders. We find that nuclear power plays an important role in global climate change mitigation efforts where energy security and affordability goals take precedence, but that the total amount of nuclear in the system is highly dependent on stakeholders' preferences. We also find synergies among climate mitigation and energy security goals, and also between these two goals and the reduced need for underground carbon storage.

[1]  Sergio Ulgiati,et al.  Economic and environmental performance of electricity production in Finland: A multicriteria assessment framework , 2011 .

[2]  Bert Metz,et al.  Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage , 2005 .

[3]  J. Granat,et al.  Requirement Analysis and Implementation of Multicriteria Analysis in the NEEDS Project , 2009 .

[4]  Marek Makowski,et al.  Interactive specification and analysis of aspiration-based preferences , 2000, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[5]  Aie World Energy Outlook 2011 , 2011 .

[6]  Son Kim,et al.  Nuclear energy response in the EMF27 study , 2014, Climatic Change.

[7]  Scott D. Sagan,et al.  The Causes of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation , 2011 .

[8]  Massimo Tavoni,et al.  Nuclear Versus Coal plus CCS: a Comparison of Two Competitive Base-Load Climate Control Options , 2009 .

[9]  Fredrik Hedenus,et al.  How much can nuclear power reduce climate mitigation cost? – Critical parameters and sensitivity , 2015 .

[10]  R. Loulou,et al.  The role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios: An analysis with the World-TIMES model , 2007 .

[11]  Tom M. L. Wigley,et al.  MAGICC / SCENGEN 5 . 3 : USER MANUAL ( version 2 ) , 2008 .

[12]  David Kennedy New nuclear power generation in the UK: Cost benefit analysis , 2007 .

[13]  Jiyong Eom,et al.  Diffusion of low-carbon technologies and the feasibility of long-term climate targets , 2015 .

[14]  D. P. Stone The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) , 2015 .

[15]  Miss A.O. Penney (b) , 1974, The New Yale Book of Quotations.

[16]  Aie,et al.  World Energy Outlook 2011 , 2001 .

[17]  Toshihiko Masui,et al.  Halving global GHG emissions by 2050 without depending on nuclear and CCS , 2014, Climatic Change.

[18]  Volker Krey,et al.  Compromises in energy policy--Using fuzzy optimization in an energy systems model , 2008 .

[19]  Bob van der Zwaan,et al.  The role of nuclear power in mitigating emissions from electricity generation , 2013 .

[20]  M. Fuhrmann Taking a Walk on the Supply Side , 2009 .

[21]  Aleh Cherp,et al.  The three perspectives on energy security: intellectual history, disciplinary roots and the potential for integration , 2011 .

[22]  Shonali Pachauri,et al.  Energy for All: Harnessing the Power of Energy Access for Chronic Poverty Reduction , 2013 .

[23]  Eric W. Stein,et al.  A comprehensive multi-criteria model to rank electric energy production technologies , 2013 .

[24]  Keywan Riahi,et al.  Chapter 17 - Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development , 2012 .

[25]  Keywan Riahi,et al.  An integrated approach to energy sustainability , 2011 .

[26]  Adam Hawkes,et al.  On policy instruments for support of micro combined heat and power , 2008 .

[27]  John P. Weyant,et al.  The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies , 2014, Climatic Change.

[28]  Marek Makowski,et al.  Management of Attainable Tradeoffs between Conflicting Goals , 2009, J. Comput..

[29]  Alexei G. Sankovski,et al.  Special report on emissions scenarios , 2000 .

[30]  Jessica Jewell,et al.  Ready for nuclear energy?: An assessment of capacities and motivations for launching new national nuclear power programs , 2011 .

[31]  Fredrik Hedenus,et al.  Nuclear power as a climate mitigation strategy – technology and proliferation risk , 2015 .

[32]  M. Strubegger,et al.  User's Guide for MESSAGE III , 1995 .

[33]  Keywan Riahi,et al.  The IIASA Energy-Multi Criteria Analysis Tool (ENE-MCA) , 2012 .

[34]  Larry Hughes,et al.  Chapter 5: Energy and security , 2012 .

[35]  N. Meinshausen,et al.  Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C , 2009, Nature.

[36]  Keywan Riahi,et al.  Synergies in the Asian energy system: Climate change, energy security, energy access and air pollution , 2012 .

[37]  T. Wigley,et al.  Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 1: Model description and calibration , 2011 .

[38]  Hans-Holger Rogner,et al.  World outlook for nuclear power , 2013 .