Merton's model, credit risk and volatility skews

In 1974 Robert Merton proposed a model for assessing the credit risk of a company by characterizing the company's equity as a call option on its assets. In this paper we propose a method for estimating the model's parameters from the implied volatilities of options on the company's equity. We use data from the credit default swap market to compare our implementation of Merton's model with the traditional approach to implementation.

[1]  M. Kendall Rank Correlation Methods , 1949 .

[2]  F. Black,et al.  The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities , 1973, Journal of Political Economy.

[3]  R. C. Merton,et al.  On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates , 1974, World Scientific Reference on Contingent Claims Analysis in Corporate Finance.

[4]  R. C. Merton,et al.  Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous , 1976 .

[5]  F. Black,et al.  VALUING CORPORATE SECURITIES: SOME EFFECTS OF BOND INDENTURE PROVISIONS , 1976 .

[6]  R. Geske The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities as Compound Options , 1977, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[7]  R. Geske THE VALUATION OF COMPOUND OPTIONS , 1979 .

[8]  S. P. Mason,et al.  Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation , 1984, World Scientific Reference on Contingent Claims Analysis in Corporate Finance.

[9]  Default Risk, Yield Spreads, and Time to Maturity , 1988 .

[10]  Robert B. Litterman,et al.  Corporate bond valuation and the term structure of credit spreads , 1991 .

[11]  M. Rubinstein. Implied Binomial Trees , 1994 .

[12]  Eduardo S. Schwartz,et al.  A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt , 1995 .

[13]  M. Rubinstein.,et al.  Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices , 1996 .

[14]  H. Leland.,et al.  Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads , 1996, World Scientific Reference on Contingent Claims Analysis in Corporate Finance.

[15]  D. Duffie,et al.  Modeling term structures of defaultable bonds , 1999 .

[16]  Darrell Duffie,et al.  Credit Swap Valuation , 1999 .

[17]  John C. Hull,et al.  Valuing Credit Default Swaps I , 2000 .

[18]  P. Collin‐Dufresne,et al.  Do Credit Spreads Reflect Stationary Leverage Ratios , 2001 .

[19]  Jing-Zhi Huang,et al.  Structural Models of Corporate Bond Pricing: An Empirical Analysis , 2002 .

[20]  G. Gemmill,et al.  Testing Merton's Model for Credit Spreads on Zero-Coupon Bonds , 2002 .

[21]  Stephen Kealhofer Quantifying Credit Risk I: Default Prediction , 2003, World Scientific Reference on Contingent Claims Analysis in Corporate Finance.

[22]  Stephen Kealhofer Quantifying Credit Risk II: Debt Valuation , 2003 .

[23]  Roberto Blanco,et al.  An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment‐Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps , 2005 .

[24]  Alan G. White,et al.  The Relationship between Credit Default Swap Spreads, Bond Yields, and Credit Rating Announcements , 2004 .

[25]  I. Marsh,et al.  An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relationship between Investment Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps , 2004 .

[26]  Dawn Hunter,et al.  Merton's model, credit risk and volatility skews , 2005 .