CONTEXT
Homicide is a leading cause of death in Colombia, with much of the fatal interpersonal violence concentrated in the country's largest cities. Firearms are involved in as much as 80% of homicides in Colombia.
OBJECTIVE
To evaluate the effect of an intermittent police-enforced ban on carrying firearms on the incidence of homicide in urban Colombia.
DESIGN
Interrupted time-series study with multiple replications.
SETTING
Cali, Colombia, during 1993 and 1994 and Bogotá, Colombia, from 1995 through August 1997.
PARTICIPANTS
The populations of Cali and Bogotá.
INTERVENTION
Carrying of firearms was banned on weekends after paydays, on holidays, and on election days. Enforcement included establishment of police checkpoints and searching of individuals during traffic stops and other routine law enforcement activity.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE
Homicide rates during intervention days were compared with rates during similar days without the intervention; estimates were based on comparisons within the same month, day of week, and time of day.
RESULTS
There were 4078 homicides in Cali during 1993 and 1994 (114.6 per 100,000 person-years). In Bogotá, 9106 homicides occurred from 1995 through August 1997 (61 per 100,000 person-years). The incidence of homicide was lower during periods when the firearm-carrying ban was in effect compared with other periods (multivariate-adjusted rate ratio, 0.86 [95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.97] for Cali, and 0.87 [95% CI, 0.77-0.98] for Bogotá).
CONCLUSION
An intermittent citywide ban on the carrying of firearms in 2 Colombian cities was associated with a reduction in homicide rates for both cities.
[1]
Mathews Tj,et al.
Annual summary of births marriages divorces and deaths: United States 1994.
,
1995
.
[2]
Patricia E. Gaynor,et al.
Introduction to Time-Series Modeling and Forecasting in Business and Economics
,
1994
.
[3]
D. Hosmer,et al.
Applied Logistic Regression
,
1991
.
[4]
D. Rubin.
Multiple imputation for nonresponse in surveys
,
1989
.
[5]
P. McCullagh,et al.
Generalized Linear Models
,
1992
.
[6]
Alan D. Lopez,et al.
The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020.
,
1996
.
[7]
Sheldon M. Stern,et al.
Health conditions in the Americas.
,
1991,
WHO chronicle.
[8]
Joseph L Schafer,et al.
Analysis of Incomplete Multivariate Data
,
1997
.
[9]
D. Rubin,et al.
Statistical Analysis with Missing Data.
,
1989
.
[10]
E. Mulvey,et al.
Regression analyses of counts and rates: Poisson, overdispersed Poisson, and negative binomial models.
,
1995,
Psychological bulletin.