Healthcare Demand Simulation Model

The aim of this paper is to study the influence of demography on the demand for healthcare services. The research is carried on in Wrocław Region (WR), Poland. We apply the system dynamic method and aging chain approach to simulate the number of individuals belonging to the respective age-gender cohorts. We consider such demographic descriptive parameters as birth and death rates, life expectancy and migration factors. Then, the discrete event simulation model is used to predict the annual demand for emergency hospital care, as registered at the hospitals located in the WR. The historical data on hospital admissions are drawn from National Health Fund regional branch. The input parameters describing the population are calculated based on historical and forecasted rates of primary demographic parameters, retrieved from various databases and official projections published by the Polish Central Statistical Office (CSO). The simulation predicts that between 2011 and 2020 the WR population will grow by 4.5% and the population aged 60+ will increase by 16.2%. Over the same period the number of arriving patients, compared to 2011, will be higher by 1.52%. Furthermore, the noticeable differences will be observed in the number of arrivals between particular hospitals.

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