Framework of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Security and Reliability

With advances and globalization of information technology such as big data and cloud computing, topics about potential risks with security vulnerabilities have been brought to the forefront. Considerable efforts have been made to estimate network security risk with an unlimited cycle of disclosed vulnerabilities in the form of threats or attacks and managements to migrate these risks. On the other hand, reliability is often considered as one of the most vital factors that affect functions of critical computing systems. In this work, we explore a framework for considering both security and reliability risks, where their causes and effects are investigated. Risk assessment considering both security and reliability is then demonstrated through a case study, where a cloud RAID (redundant array of independent disks) storage system under DoS (denial-of-service) attacks is modeled and analyzed using an analytical method integrating Markov chains and binary decision diagrams.

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