Short-term predictions of HIV prevalence and AIDS incidence.

Reports of AIDS cases in Amsterdam up to February 1990 were used to make predictions of future cases up to 1993. Two published methods were applied, which make extrapolations from current cases and simultaneously estimate the extent of delay in reporting. The choice of the exact model greatly influenced the predictions, as did predictions for distinct transmission groups. We present results for the homo/bisexual male group, and the total population of Amsterdam. The AIDS case predictions are used to predict the HIV prevalence using the ratio of HIV prevalence to AIDS incidence and through 'back calculation'. We suggest that the ratio is a simple technique that may be used to estimate HIV prevalence. The estimated number of cumulative HIV infected homo/bisexual males in Amsterdam in January 1990 was between 2100 and 4100 in a total of 2200-4600 infected people.

[1]  P. Bacchetti Estimating the Incubation Period of AIDS by Comparing Population Infection and Diagnosis Patterns , 1990 .

[2]  G. Rutherford,et al.  Course of HIV-I infection in a cohort of homosexual and bisexual men: an 11 year follow up study. , 1990, BMJ.

[3]  R. Biggar AIDS incubation in 1891 HIV seroconverters from different exposure groups. International Registry of Seroconverters. , 1990, AIDS.

[4]  J. Hoek,et al.  Increase in unsafe homosexual behaviour , 1990, The Lancet.

[5]  M. Dijkgraaf,et al.  HIV infection dynamics and intervention experiments in linked risk groups. , 1990, Statistics in medicine.

[6]  J M Taylor,et al.  Estimating the distribution of times from HIV seroconversion to AIDS using multiple imputation. Multicentre AIDS Cohort Study. , 1990, Statistics in medicine.

[7]  G. Rutherford,et al.  Effect of the revised AIDS case definition on AIDS reporting in San Francisco: evidence of increased reporting in intravenous drug users. , 1990, AIDS.

[8]  R. Coutinho,et al.  [The epidemiology of AIDS in Amsterdam, 1982-1988]. , 1990, Nederlands tijdschrift voor geneeskunde.

[9]  R. Brookmeyer More on the relation between AIDS cases and HIV prevalence. , 1989, The New England journal of medicine.

[10]  D. Cox,et al.  A process of events with notification delay and the forecasting of AIDS. , 1989, Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences.

[11]  S. Gupta,et al.  The transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 in the male homosexual community in the United Kingdom: the influence of changes in sexual behaviour. , 1989, Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences.

[12]  Wilkie Ad Population projections for AIDS using an actuarial model. , 1989 .

[13]  V. Isham,et al.  Estimation of the incidence of HIV infection. , 1989, Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences.

[14]  S H Heisterkamp,et al.  Correcting reported AIDS incidence: a statistical approach. , 1989, Statistics in medicine.

[15]  Salzberg Am,et al.  The relation between AIDS cases and HIV prevalence. , 1989 .

[16]  J. Goudsmit,et al.  Changes in sexual behaviour and the fall in incidence of HIV infection among homosexual men. , 1989, BMJ.

[17]  J. Goudsmit,et al.  Numbers of CD4+ cells and the levels of core antigens of and antibodies to the human immunodeficiency virus as predictors of AIDS among seropositive homosexual men. , 1988, The Journal of infectious diseases.

[18]  G. Rutherford,et al.  A model-based estimate of the mean incubation period for AIDS in homosexual men. , 1988, Science.

[19]  Mitchell H. Gail,et al.  A Method for Obtaining Short-Term Projections and Lower Bounds on the Size of the AIDS Epidemic , 1988 .

[20]  J. Chmiel,et al.  Two quick estimates of the HIV prevalence in homosexual men in Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco. The Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. , 1990, AIDS.

[21]  R. Selik,et al.  Impact of the 1987 revision of the case definition of acquired immune deficiency syndrome in the United States. , 1990, Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes.

[22]  J. Goedert,et al.  Therapy may explain recent deficits in AIDS incidence. , 1990, Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes.

[23]  R Brookmeyer,et al.  Statistical methods for short-term projections of AIDS incidence. , 1989, Statistics in medicine.

[24]  J M Taylor,et al.  Models for the HIV infection and AIDS epidemic in the United States. , 1989, Statistics in medicine.

[25]  S L Zeger,et al.  Statistical methods for monitoring the AIDS epidemic. , 1989, Statistics in medicine.

[26]  S. Lagakos,et al.  The value of AIDS incidence data in assessing the spread of HIV infection. , 1989, Statistics in medicine.

[27]  A. Salzberg,et al.  The relation between AIDS cases and HIV prevalence. , 1989, The New England journal of medicine.

[28]  A. D. Wilkie Population projections for AIDS using an actuarial model. , 1989, Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences.

[29]  M. J. R. Healy,et al.  Short‐term Extrapolation of the AIDS Epidemic , 1988 .

[30]  Revision of the CDC surveillance case definition for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists; AIDS Program, Center for Infectious Diseases. , 1987, MMWR supplements.