Do commercial building sector-derived carbon emissions decouple from the economic growth in Tertiary Industry? A case study of four municipalities in China.

Decoupling economic development from carbon emissions generated from China's commercial buildings (CECCB) is regarded as an important indicator for evaluating the energy efficiency of the commercial building sector in China. Our study is the first to propose a decoupling method based on a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition analysis with the Kaya identity to analyze the relationship between economic development in China's Tertiary Industry and the CECCB growth at both national and municipal levels. The following three main results are found. (1) At the national level, commercial building sector decoupling from 2001 to 2015 is limited. Only four decoupling stages are observed at the municipal level with the ordering of municipal decoupling measured as follows: Tianjin > Beijing > Shanghai > Chongqing (2001-2010), Chongqing > Beijing > Tianjin > Shanghai (2011-2015). (2) Two extended versions of Environmental Kuznets Curves further show what drives different decoupling levels in the four municipalities. (3) More significant decoupling effects observed in recent years can be attributed to significant improvements made in the energy efficiency work of China's commercial building sector. Overall, our approach successfully covers a research gap relevant to the decoupling of the relationship between CECCB growth and the economic development of China's Tertiary Industry. Furthermore, we believe our results can be used to guide the evaluation of energy efficiency work in China's commercial building sector, and such efforts can also enrich diverse research conducted on China's low carbon economic systems.

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