A bioeconomic model of shrimp maricultural systems in the U.S.A.

Abstract A general conceptual model of a marine shrimp farming system representing important relationships between the engineering design of facilities, the environmental and managerial factors affecting shrimp growth and survival, and the factors affecting procuction costs and profit is presented. Based upon this conceptual model, a bioeconomic simulation model is developed to assess the economic feasibility of a projected penaeid shrimp maricultural operation along the Texas coast, and to evaluate the effects of changes in an important managerial variable rate of water flow, on the biological and economic productivity of the system. The conceptual model consists of five interconnected parts including environmental, production, engineering, marketing, and profit submodels. The bioeconomic simulation model is coded in FORTRAN to simulate system behavior with a daily time step on a digital computer. Results of simulations of a projected penaeid shrimp maricultural operation along the Texas coast suggest that such an operation would be marginally economically feasible when based upon the particular assumptions of this study. Baseline simulations predict a mean annual profit of US $275/ acre (1 acre ≈0.4 ha) with a standard deviation of US $122/acre, which represent a 2% chance of economic loss. The predicted annual return on investment is 4.5%. The role of modeling in development of shrimp maricultural systems in the United States is discussed.