The Impacts of Aerosol Emissions on Historical Climate in UKESM1

As one of the main drivers for climate change, it is important to understand changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions and evaluate the climate impact. Anthropogenic aerosols have affected global climate while exerting a much larger influence on regional climate by their short lifetime and heterogeneous spatial distribution. In this study, the effective radiative forcing (ERF), which has been accepted as a useful index for quantifying the effect of climate forcing, was evaluated to understand the effects of aerosol on regional climate over a historical period (1850–2014). Eastern United States (EUS), Western European Union (WEU), and Eastern Central China (ECC), are regions that predominantly emit anthropogenic aerosols and were analyzed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) simulations implemented within the framework of the Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) in the UK’s Earth System Model (UKESM1). In EUS and WEU, where industrialization occurred relatively earlier, the negative ERF seems to have been recovering in recent decades based on the decreasing trend of aerosol emissions. Conversely, the radiative cooling in ECC seems to be strengthened as aerosol emission continuously increases. These aerosol ERFs have been largely attributed to atmospheric rapid adjustments, driven mainly by aerosol-cloud interactions rather than direct effects of aerosol such as scattering and absorption.

[1]  anonymous,et al.  Review of “Description and evaluation of aerosol in UKESM1 and HadGEM3-GC3.1 CMIP6 historical simulations” , 2020 .

[2]  M. Mills,et al.  Effective radiative forcing from emissions of reactive gases and aerosols – a multi-model comparison , 2020, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

[3]  N. Abraham,et al.  Assessment of pre-industrial to present-day anthropogenic climate forcing in UKESM1 , 2020, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

[4]  Christopher J. Smith,et al.  Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models , 2020, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

[5]  A. J. Hewitt,et al.  UKESM1: Description and Evaluation of the U.K. Earth System Model , 2019, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.

[6]  K. Boo,et al.  Effects of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcings on the Summer Temperature Variations in East Asia during the 20th Century , 2019, Atmosphere.

[7]  S. Dhomse,et al.  Description and evaluation of the UKCA stratosphere–troposphere chemistry scheme (StratTrop vn 1.0) implemented in UKESM1 , 2019, Geoscientific Model Development.

[8]  Johannes W. Kaiser,et al.  Historic global biomass burning emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP) based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750-2015) , 2017 .

[9]  Meng Li,et al.  Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) , 2017 .

[10]  Stefan Reimann,et al.  Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6) , 2016 .

[11]  T. Andrews,et al.  Recommendations for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from climate models for CMIP6 , 2016 .

[12]  J. Lamarque,et al.  AerChemMIP: quantifying the effects of chemistry and aerosols in CMIP6 , 2016 .

[13]  Veronika Eyring,et al.  Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization , 2015 .

[14]  Y. Wang,et al.  Atmospheric responses to the redistribution of anthropogenic aerosols , 2015 .

[15]  Hua Zhang,et al.  Improvement of cloud microphysics in the aerosol‐climate model BCC_AGCM2.0.1_CUACE/Aero, evaluation against observations, and updated aerosol indirect effect , 2014 .

[16]  K. Taylor,et al.  Quantifying components of aerosol‐cloud‐radiation interactions in climate models , 2014 .

[17]  Olivier Boucher,et al.  Adjustments in the Forcing-Feedback Framework for Understanding Climate Change , 2014 .

[18]  M. Allen,et al.  The role of short-lived climate pollutants in meeting temperature goals , 2013 .

[19]  S. Ghan.  Technical Note: Estimating aerosol effects on cloud radiative forcing , 2013 .

[20]  B. DeAngelo,et al.  Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment , 2013 .

[21]  Steven J. Smith,et al.  Two hundred fifty years of aerosols and climate: the end of the age of aerosols , 2013 .

[22]  M. Chin,et al.  Radiative forcing of the direct aerosol effect from AeroCom Phase II simulations , 2012 .

[23]  Zhongping Shen,et al.  Simulation of direct radiative forcing of aerosols and their effects on East Asian climate using an interactive AGCM-aerosol coupled system , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[24]  Mohamed Zerroukat,et al.  The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 7.0/7.1 and JULES Global Land 7.0 configurations , 2011, Geoscientific Model Development.

[25]  Chris Harris,et al.  Design and implementation of the infrastructure of HadGEM3: the next-generation Met Office climate modelling system , 2010 .

[26]  Martyn P. Chipperfield,et al.  Description and evaluation of GLOMAP-mode: a modal global aerosol microphysics model for the UKCA composition-climate model , 2010 .

[27]  Rolf Philipona,et al.  How declining aerosols and rising greenhouse gases forced rapid warming in Europe since the 1980s , 2009 .

[28]  William J. Collins,et al.  Evaluation of the new UKCA climate-composition model – Part 2: The Troposphere , 2008 .

[29]  Yoram J. Kaufman,et al.  An Emerging Global Aerosol Climatology from the MODIS Satellite Sensors , 2008 .

[30]  R. Dickinson,et al.  Couplings between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry , 2007 .

[31]  O. Boucher,et al.  Constraining the first aerosol indirect radiative forcing in the LMDZ GCM using POLDER and MODIS satellite data , 2005 .

[32]  Tianjun Zhou,et al.  Climate Effects of the Deep Continental Stratus Clouds Generated by the Tibetan Plateau , 2004 .

[33]  U. Lohmann,et al.  Nonlinear Aspects of the Climate Response to Greenhouse Gas and Aerosol Forcing , 2004 .

[34]  F. Giorgi,et al.  Direct radiative forcing and regional climatic effects of anthropogenic aerosols over East Asia: A regional coupled climate‐chemistry/aerosol model study , 2002 .

[35]  J. Hansen,et al.  Climate Effects of Black Carbon Aerosols in China and India , 2002, Science.

[36]  V. Ramanathan,et al.  Aerosols, Climate, and the Hydrological Cycle , 2001, Science.

[37]  Makiko Sato,et al.  A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change , 2001 .

[38]  Andrew S. Jones,et al.  Indirect sulphate aerosol forcing in a climate model with an interactive sulphur cycle , 2001 .

[39]  J. Hansen,et al.  Global warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario. , 2000, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[40]  Joyce E. Penner,et al.  Indirect effect of sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols: A mechanistic treatment , 2000 .

[41]  C. Mechoso,et al.  Links between Annual Variations of Peruvian Stratocumulus Clouds and of SST in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific , 1999 .

[42]  Piers M. Forster,et al.  The effect of human activity on radiative forcing of climate change: a review of recent developments , 1999 .

[43]  J. Hansen,et al.  Radiative forcing and climate response , 1997 .

[44]  Tim Li,et al.  Why the ITCZ is mostly north of the equator , 1996 .

[45]  J. M. Gregory,et al.  Climate response to increasing levels of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols , 1995, Nature.

[46]  D. Shindell,et al.  Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing , 2014 .

[47]  J. A. Pyle,et al.  Geoscientific Model Development Evaluation of the new UKCA climate-composition model – Part 1 : The stratosphere , 2009 .