A FRAMEWORK FOR THE ANALYSIS OF DEMAND FOR URBAN GOODS MOVEMENTS

The purpose of this paper is to establish principles and procedures for the analysis of demand for urban goods movements. A classification of freight movements is proposed based on specific underlying characteristics of these movements, and attention is focused on the urban component of goods movements. This focus is established and justified by considering the relative magnitude of the urban problem, its impacts on the quality of life, and likely trends of the future balance between urban and interurban goods movement. Similarities of and differences between passenger and freight transportation are pointed out as an aid to the development of analytical approaches to prediction of the demand for freight movements. Some basic definitions concerning urban goods movements are proposed. A case for research into urban freight demand, built in part on consideration of the best mix of shortrun and long-run solution strategies to urban goods problems, is established. It is also based on an identification of the problems that have arisen in the passenger transportation system as the result of indequate passenger demand analysis. Strategies are suggested by which such a demand analysis can be initiated. The objectives for freight demand analysis are identified, and an empirical approach to their achievement is proposed. This empirical approach must be based on the collection of data on freight movements. These data requirements center around both consignment movements and vehicle movements, and the basic variables on which data are needed are identified. The lack of such data from previous studies is pointed out, and some specific problems associated with the collection of the required data are examined.