Suburban change: A time series approach to measuring form and spatial configuration

With few exceptions, the field of suburban studies has largely ignored the question of what happens to a suburb after initial development, and efforts toward this end are often hampered by limited techniques for the direct measurement of built form and space over time. Historic data sources and computational advancements are prevailing against some of these limitations, but there remains a need for techniques to gather and process formal and spatial suburban data: not merely in the aggregate, but also in detailed patterns within a study area. Given the permanence of spatial and formal configurations in our cities, it is essential to develop the tools to better understand and predict future patterns of growth and change. In this study, a method for examining the relationship between long-term changes in built form and predictive characteristics such as global integration and block size is developed and explored. Conzenian morphology and space syntax approaches are integrated within a geographic information system (GIS) framework, and used to study an historic first-ring suburb in Raleigh, NC at four points in time over a 96-year span. Aerial images, historic road and insurance maps, and GIS sources are used to generate spatial configuration and building data for each study time period. These data are then processed and analysed to identify statistical and map-pattern morphological and syntactic relationships. It is concluded that the resulting database is capable of identifying and successfully investigating relationships between predictor and outcome variables such as global integration and building demolitions – both in the aggregate and in bivariate patterns. Further, this methodological approach should provide a rich set of prediction tools for urban designers and planners.