Analyzing impact factors of CO2 emissions using the STIRPAT model

Abstract Using the STIRPAT model, this paper analyzes the impact of population, affluence and technology on the total CO 2 emissions of countries at different income levels over the period 1975–2000. Our main results show at the global level that economic growth has the greatest impact on CO 2 emissions, and the proportion of the population between ages 15 and 64 has the least impact. The proportion of the population between 15 and 64 has a negative impact on the total CO 2 emissions of countries at the high income level, but the impact is positive at other income levels. This may illustrate the importance of the “ B ” in the “ I  =  PABT ”; that is to say that different behavior fashions can greatly influence environmental change. For low-income countries, the impact of GDP per capita on total CO 2 emissions is very great, and the impact of energy intensity in upper-middle income countries is very great. The impact of these factors on the total CO 2 emissions of countries at the high income level is relatively great. Therefore, these empirical results indicate that the impact of population, affluence and technology on CO 2 emissions varies at different levels of development. Thus, policy-makers should consider these matters fully when they construct their long-term strategies for CO 2 abatement.