Bayesian Deep Learning for Exoplanet Atmospheric Retrieval

Over the past decade, the study of extrasolar planets has evolved rapidly from plain detection and identification to comprehensive categorization and characterization of exoplanet systems and their atmospheres. Atmospheric retrieval, the inverse modeling technique used to determine an exoplanetary atmosphere's temperature structure and composition from an observed spectrum, is both time-consuming and compute-intensive, requiring complex algorithms that compare thousands to millions of atmospheric models to the observational data to find the most probable values and associated uncertainties for each model parameter. For rocky, terrestrial planets, the retrieved atmospheric composition can give insight into the surface fluxes of gaseous species necessary to maintain the stability of that atmosphere, which may in turn provide insight into the geological and/or biological processes active on the planet. These atmospheres contain many molecules, some of them biosignatures, spectral fingerprints indicative of biological activity, which will become observable with the next generation of telescopes. Runtimes of traditional retrieval models scale with the number of model parameters, so as more molecular species are considered, runtimes can become prohibitively long. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) and computer vision offer new ways to reduce the time to perform a retrieval by orders of magnitude, given a sufficient data set to train with. Here we present an ML-based retrieval framework called Intelligent exoplaNet Atmospheric RetrievAl (INARA) that consists of a Bayesian deep learning model for retrieval and a data set of 3,000,000 synthetic rocky exoplanetary spectra generated using the NASA Planetary Spectrum Generator. Our work represents the first ML retrieval model for rocky, terrestrial exoplanets and the first synthetic data set of terrestrial spectra generated at this scale.

[1]  Drake Deming,et al.  Illusion and reality in the atmospheres of exoplanets , 2017, 1701.00493.

[2]  C. Sotin,et al.  Mass–radius curve for extrasolar Earth-like planets and ocean planets , 2007 .

[3]  Michael D. Smith,et al.  Planetary Spectrum Generator: An accurate online radiative transfer suite for atmospheres, comets, small bodies and exoplanets , 2018, Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer.

[4]  Cajo J. F. ter Braak,et al.  Differential Evolution Markov Chain with snooker updater and fewer chains , 2008, Stat. Comput..

[5]  Nitish Srivastava,et al.  Improving neural networks by preventing co-adaptation of feature detectors , 2012, ArXiv.

[6]  Geoffrey E. Hinton,et al.  ImageNet classification with deep convolutional neural networks , 2012, Commun. ACM.

[7]  FujiiYuka,et al.  Exoplanet Biosignatures: Observational Prospects , 2018 .

[8]  F. Feroz,et al.  Multimodal nested sampling: an efficient and robust alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for astronomical data analyses , 2007, 0704.3704.

[9]  GrenfellJohn Lee,et al.  Exoplanet Biosignatures: A Review of Remotely Detectable Signs of Life , 2018 .

[10]  Jian Sun,et al.  Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition , 2015, 2016 IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR).

[11]  Zoubin Ghahramani,et al.  Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning , 2015, ICML.

[12]  Laszlo Sturmann,et al.  STELLAR DIAMETERS AND TEMPERATURES. III. MAIN-SEQUENCE A, F, G, AND K STARS: ADDITIONAL HIGH-PRECISION MEASUREMENTS AND EMPIRICAL RELATIONS , 2013, 1306.2974.

[13]  David C. Catling,et al.  The Cosmic Shoreline: The Evidence that Escape Determines which Planets Have Atmospheres, and what this May Mean for Proxima Centauri B , 2017, 1702.03386.

[14]  Raphael Sznitman,et al.  Supervised machine learning for analysing spectra of exoplanetary atmospheres , 2018, Nature Astronomy.

[15]  Russel J. White,et al.  STELLAR DIAMETERS AND TEMPERATURES. II. MAIN-SEQUENCE K- AND M-STARS , 2012, 1208.2431.

[16]  D. Catling,et al.  Common 0.1 bar tropopause in thick atmospheres set by pressure-dependent infrared transparency , 2013, 1312.6859.

[17]  I. P. Waldmann,et al.  DREAMING OF ATMOSPHERES , 2015, 1511.08339.

[18]  N. Madhusudhan Atmospheric Retrieval of Exoplanets , 2018, 1808.04824.

[19]  Ian J. M. Crossfield Observations of Exoplanet Atmospheres , 2016 .

[20]  Yoshua Bengio,et al.  Generative Adversarial Nets , 2014, NIPS.

[21]  L. Rogers MOST 1.6 EARTH-RADIUS PLANETS ARE NOT ROCKY , 2014, 1407.4457.

[22]  Tiziano Zingales,et al.  ExoGAN: Retrieving Exoplanetary Atmospheres Using Deep Convolutional Generative Adversarial Networks , 2018, The Astronomical Journal.