NSE Stock Market Prediction Using Deep-Learning Models

Abstract The neural network, one of the intelligent data mining technique that has been used by researchers in various areas for the past 10 years. Prediction and analysis of stock market data have got an important role in today’s economy. The various algorithms used for forecasting can be categorized into linear (AR, MA, ARIMA, ARMA) and non-linear models (ARCH, GARCH, Neural Network). In this paper, we are using four types of deep learning architectures i.e Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for predicting the stock price of a company based on the historical prices available. Here we are using day-wise closing price of two different stock markets, National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The network was trained with the stock price of a single company from NSE and predicted for five different companies from both NSE and NYSE. It has been observed that CNN is outperforming the other models. The network was able to predict for NYSE even though it was trained with NSE data. This was possible because both the stock markets share some common inner dynamics. The results obtained were com- pared with ARIMA model and it has been observed that the neural networks are outperforming the existing linear model (ARIMA).

[1]  Zhe George Zhang,et al.  Forecasting stock indices with back propagation neural network , 2011, Expert Syst. Appl..

[2]  Guoqiang Peter Zhang,et al.  Time series forecasting using a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model , 2003, Neurocomputing.

[3]  Yoshinori Kishikawa,et al.  Prediction of Stock Trends by Using the Wavelet Transform and the Multi-Stage Fuzzy Inference System Optimized by the GA , 2000 .

[4]  K. P. Soman,et al.  Stock price prediction using LSTM, RNN and CNN-sliding window model , 2017, 2017 International Conference on Advances in Computing, Communications and Informatics (ICACCI).

[5]  Diyar Akay,et al.  Comparison of direct and iterative artificial neural network forecast approaches in multi-periodic time series forecasting , 2009, Expert Syst. Appl..

[6]  M. Kosaka,et al.  Application Of Neural Network To Technical Analysis Of Stock Market Prediction , 2001 .

[7]  Bilberto Batres-Estrada,et al.  Deep learning for multivariate financial time series , 2015 .

[8]  Vijay Krishna Menon,et al.  Measuring stock price and trading volume causality among Nifty50 stocks: The Toda Yamamoto method , 2016, 2016 International Conference on Advances in Computing, Communications and Informatics (ICACCI).

[9]  Jovina Roman,et al.  Backpropagation and recurrent neural networks in financial analysis of multiple stock market returns , 1996, Proceedings of HICSS-29: 29th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[10]  Ingoo Han,et al.  Genetic algorithms approach to feature discretization in artificial neural networks for the prediction of stock price index , 2000 .

[11]  Michael Y. Hu,et al.  Forecasting with artificial neural networks: The state of the art , 1997 .

[12]  Morteza Esfandyari,et al.  Stock Market Index Prediction Using Artificial Neural Network , 2016 .

[13]  K. P. Soman,et al.  Bulk Price Forecasting Using Spark over NSE Data Set , 2016, DMBD.

[14]  Arun Agarwal,et al.  Recurrent neural network and a hybrid model for prediction of stock returns , 2015, Expert Syst. Appl..

[15]  Ranjeeta Bisoi,et al.  Forecasting financial time series using a low complexity recurrent neural network and evolutionary learning approach , 2017, J. King Saud Univ. Comput. Inf. Sci..

[16]  Fei-Fei Li,et al.  Visualizing and Understanding Recurrent Networks , 2015, ArXiv.

[17]  Tugrul U. Daim,et al.  Using artificial neural network models in stock market index prediction , 2011, Expert Syst. Appl..

[18]  Suraiya Jabin,et al.  Stock Market Prediction using Feed-forward Artificial Neural Network , 2014 .

[19]  Mo Jamshidi,et al.  Stock market prediction by using artificial neural network , 2014, 2014 World Automation Congress (WAC).

[20]  Yue Zhang,et al.  Deep Learning for Event-Driven Stock Prediction , 2015, IJCAI.

[21]  Jan Hendrik Witte,et al.  Deep Learning for Finance: Deep Portfolios , 2016 .

[22]  Omar S. Soliman,et al.  A Machine Learning Model for Stock Market Prediction , 2014, ArXiv.

[23]  C. K. Jha,et al.  Prediction of stock market using artificial neural network , 2014, 2014 International Conference of Soft Computing Techniques for Engineering and Technology (ICSCTET).