Combined CT and serum CA19-9 for stratifying risk for progression in patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer receiving intraoperative radiotherapy

Background and purpose The aim of this study was to evaluate the significance of baseline computed tomography (CT) imaging features and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) in predicting prognosis of locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) receiving intraoperative radiotherapy (IORT) and to establish a progression risk nomogram that helps to identify the potential beneficiary of IORT. Methods A total of 88 LAPC patients with IORT as their initial treatment were enrolled retrospectively. Clinical data and CT imaging features were analyzed. Cox regression analyses were performed to identify the independent risk factors for progression-free survival (PFS) and to establish a nomogram. A risk-score was calculated by the coefficients of the regression model to stratify the risk of progression. Results Multivariate analyses revealed that relative enhanced value in portal-venous phase (REV-PVP), peripancreatic fat infiltration, necrosis, and CA19-9 were significantly associated with PFS (all p < 0.05). The nomogram was constructed according to the above variables and showed a good performance in predicting the risk of progression with a concordance index (C-index) of 0.779. Our nomogram stratified patients with LAPC into low- and high-risk groups with distinct differences in progression after IORT (p < 0.001). Conclusion The integrated nomogram would help clinicians to identify appropriate patients who might benefit from IORT before treatment and to adapt an individualized treatment strategy.