Documentation of the Petroleum Allocation (PAL) model. Draft. [Simulation for business as usual and for supply disruption: tracks distribution patterns]

This report documents the Petroleum Allocation (PAL) Model which was developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy (DOE). The PAL Model simulates for business-as-usual (BAU) and disruption conditions the movements of petroleum from its sources of production, through conversion in refineries, to end-product demand regions where refined products are ultimately consumed. The model was developed primarily as a tool to study the impacts of hypothesized petroleum supply disruptions on the distribution of crudes and refined products in the world oil market. In addition to predicting how distribution patterns may change during a disruption with no government intervention, the model also has the capability to model the flows of petroleum given that the International Energy Agency (IEA) Agreements are triggered. The first chapter provides for the nontechnical reader a general description of the PAL Model. In the chapters that follow, a detailed description of the formal rigorous structure of the major components of the PAL Model is provided for the technical audience. Chapter 2 describes the crude supply and refined-product demand sectors. The transportation and refinery components are described in Chapters 3 and 4, respectively. In Chapter 5, the PAL Model is documented as anmore » integrated structure of the four major model components. Chapter 6 provides a detailed description of the various output tables generated by PAL. Chapter 7 contains a discussion of the procedures required to execute a business-as-usual (BAU) run. The procedure required to execute a disruption run is discussed in the final chapter. Appendix A contains a list of publications in which the PAL Model was used. Appendix B provides background on the MPS III programs used in the PAL Model. A description of the model's computer code is given in Appendix C. A technical audience is assumed for chapters 2-8 and the appendices. 24 figs., 43 tabs.« less