Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and food safety within the island of Ireland

Climate and other environmental change presents a number of challenges for effective food safety. Food production, distribution and consumption takes place within functioning ecosystems but this backdrop is often ignored or treated as static and unchanging. The risks presented by environmental change include novel pests and diseases, often caused by problem species expanding their spatial distributions as they track changing conditions, toxin generation in crops, direct effects on crop and animal production, consequences for trade networks driven by shifting economic viability of production methods in changing environments and finally, wholesale transformation of ecosystems as they respond to novel climatic regimes.

[1]  J. West,et al.  Impacts of changing climate and agronomic factors on fusarium ear blight of wheat in the UK , 2012 .

[2]  D.J.M. Willems,et al.  Proactive systems for early warning of potential impacts of natural disasters on food safety: Climate-change-induced extreme events as case in point , 2013 .

[3]  M. Veith,et al.  Species distribution models for the alien invasive Asian Harlequin ladybird (Harmonia axyridis) , 2012 .

[4]  R. Sutherst,et al.  Global Change and Human Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases , 2004, Clinical Microbiology Reviews.

[5]  Mikhail A. Semenov,et al.  Impacts of climate change on wheat anthesis and fusarium ear blight in the UK , 2011, European Journal of Plant Pathology.

[6]  P. Skuce,et al.  Climate change and infectious disease: helminthological challenges to farmed ruminants in temperate regions. , 2010, Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience.

[7]  H. J. van der Fels-Klerx,et al.  Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change , 2012, Food additives & contaminants. Part A, Chemistry, analysis, control, exposure & risk assessment.

[8]  J. Brownstein,et al.  Emerging fungal threats to animal, plant and ecosystem health , 2012, Nature.

[9]  B. Eickhout,et al.  A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use , 2008 .

[10]  S. Long,et al.  Global food insecurity. Treatment of major food crops with elevated carbon dioxide or ozone under large-scale fully open-air conditions suggests recent models may have overestimated future yields , 2005, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[11]  Octavio A. Ramirez,et al.  Forecasting Agricultural Commodity Prices with Asymmetric-Error GARCH Models , 2003 .

[12]  J. Palutikof,et al.  Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability , 2001 .

[13]  R. Mcdonald,et al.  Invasive Species in Ireland , 2004 .

[14]  G. Yohe,et al.  A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems , 2003, Nature.

[15]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems , 2001, Nature.

[16]  C. Tucker,et al.  Climate-Driven Increases in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 1982 to 1999 , 2003, Science.

[17]  William A. Masters,et al.  Climate and Scale in Economic Growth , 2001 .

[18]  T. Work,et al.  Arrival rate of nonindigenous insect species into the United States through foreign trade , 2005, Biological Invasions.

[19]  N. Lima,et al.  Further mycotoxin effects from climate change , 2011 .

[20]  R. Frutos,et al.  Insect Pathogens as Biological Control Agents: Do They Have a Future? , 2001 .

[21]  Jane Memmott,et al.  Global warming and the disruption of plant-pollinator interactions. , 2007, Ecology letters.

[22]  Wayne L. Bryden,et al.  Mycotoxin contamination of the feed supply chain: Implications for animal productivity and feed security , 2012 .

[23]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Solutions for a cultivated planet , 2011, Nature.

[24]  Julie Flood,et al.  The importance of plant health to food security , 2010, Food Security.

[25]  J. Palutikof,et al.  Climate change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policymakers. , 2007 .

[26]  Carlos H. Díaz-Ambrona,et al.  Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models , 2007 .

[27]  P. Leadley,et al.  Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity. , 2012, Ecology letters.

[28]  R. B. Jackson,et al.  Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. , 2000, Science.

[29]  Lukas H. Meyer,et al.  Summary for Policymakers , 2022, The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.

[30]  P. Hulme.  Trade, transport and trouble: managing invasive species pathways in an era of globalization , 2009 .

[31]  F. Chapin,et al.  EFFECTS OF BIODIVERSITY ON ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING: A CONSENSUS OF CURRENT KNOWLEDGE , 2005 .

[32]  E. Morgan,et al.  Epidemiology and risk factors for exposure to gastrointestinal nematodes in dairy herds in northwestern Europe. , 2010, Veterinary parasitology.

[33]  Jarrett E. K. Byrnes,et al.  A global synthesis reveals biodiversity loss as a major driver of ecosystem change , 2012, Nature.

[34]  Using the output from global circulation models to predict changes in the distribution and abundance of cereal aphids in Canada: a mechanistic modeling approach , 2006 .

[35]  P. K. Rohan,et al.  The climate of Ireland , 1986 .

[36]  D. Pimentel,et al.  Update on the environmental and economic costs associated with alien-invasive species in the United States , 2005 .

[37]  N. Magan,et al.  Possible climate‐change effects on mycotoxin contamination of food crops pre‐ and postharvest , 2011 .

[38]  Brian G. Wolff,et al.  Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental Change , 2001, Science.

[39]  B. Campbell,et al.  Climate Change and Food Systems , 2012 .

[40]  H. Yasuda,et al.  Invasions by ladybugs, ladybirds, and other predatory beetles , 2011, BioControl.

[41]  P. Kirkham,et al.  A possible overwintering mechanism for bluetongue virus in the absence of the insect vector. , 2003, The Journal of general virology.

[42]  C. Marshall,et al.  Has the Earth’s sixth mass extinction already arrived? , 2011, Nature.

[43]  Amedeo Reyneri,et al.  A dynamic risk assessment model (FUMAgrain) of fumonisin synthesis by Fusarium verticillioides in maize grain in Italy , 2009 .

[44]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , 2013 .

[45]  V. Gil,et al.  Assessment of climate change in Europe from an ensemble of regional climate models by the use of Köppen–Trewartha classification , 2013 .

[46]  Peter J. Gregory,et al.  Implications of climate change for diseases, crop yields and food security , 2011, Euphytica.

[47]  H. J. van der Fels-Klerx,et al.  Climate change increases deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat in north-western Europe , 2012, Food additives & contaminants. Part A, Chemistry, analysis, control, exposure & risk assessment.

[48]  S. Steele‐Dunne,et al.  Ireland in a warmer world; scientific predictions of the Irish climate in the twenty-first century , 2008 .

[49]  Alexander Lipton-Lifschitz,et al.  Predictability and unpredictability in financial markets , 1999 .

[50]  W. Cramer,et al.  A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate , 1992 .

[51]  Yu‐chin Chen,et al.  Predicting Agri-Commodity Prices: An Asset Pricing Approach , 2010 .

[52]  J. Lennon,et al.  Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling , 2012, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[53]  B. Eickhout,et al.  The impact of different policy environments on agricultural land use in Europe , 2006 .

[54]  J. Newman.  Climate change and the fate of cereal aphids in Southern Britain , 2005 .

[55]  B. Aukema,et al.  Predicting the potential geographical distribution of the harlequin ladybird, Harmonia axyridis, using the CLIMEX model , 2008, BioControl.

[56]  Matteo Marsili,et al.  Criticality and market efficiency in a simple realistic model of the stock market. , 2002, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[57]  Amit Mitra,et al.  Forecasting daily foreign exchange rates using genetically optimized neural networks , 2002 .

[58]  A. Schaafsma,et al.  Climatic models to predict occurrence of Fusarium toxins in wheat and maize. , 2007, International journal of food microbiology.

[59]  C. Wild,et al.  Mycotoxins and Human Disease: a Largely Ignored Global Health Issue , 2022 .

[60]  D. Lobell,et al.  Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980 , 2011, Science.

[61]  B. Boag,et al.  The application of GIS techniques to estimate the establishment and potential spread of Artioposthia triangulata in Scotland , 1998, Pedobiologia.

[62]  M. Rosegrant.  International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) Model Description , 2012 .

[63]  O. Phillips,et al.  Extinction risk from climate change , 2004, Nature.

[64]  L. Elsgaard,et al.  Shifts in comparative advantages for maize, oat and wheat cropping under climate change in Europe , 2012, Food additives & contaminants. Part A, Chemistry, analysis, control, exposure & risk assessment.

[65]  Peter Daszak,et al.  Emerging infectious diseases of plants: pathogen pollution, climate change and agrotechnology drivers. , 2004, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[66]  G. Kleter,et al.  Climate change and food safety: an emerging issue with special focus on Europe. , 2009, Food and chemical toxicology : an international journal published for the British Industrial Biological Research Association.

[67]  A. P. Schaffers,et al.  Parallel Declines in Pollinators and Insect-Pollinated Plants in Britain and the Netherlands , 2006, Science.

[68]  David A. Bohan,et al.  Use of an individual‐based model to forecast the effect of climate change on the dynamics, abundance and geographical range of the pest slug Deroceras reticulatum in the UK , 2006 .

[69]  G. Schatzmayr,et al.  Global occurrence of mycotoxins in the food and feed chain: facts and figures , 2013 .

[70]  H. Mooney,et al.  Shifting plant phenology in response to global change. , 2007, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[71]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Global Consequences of Land Use , 2005, Science.

[72]  N. Boatman,et al.  Ecological impacts of arable intensification in Europe. , 2001, Journal of environmental management.

[73]  Andrew P. Morse,et al.  Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe , 2011, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[74]  T. D. Mitchell,et al.  Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe , 2005, Science.

[75]  E. Levin,et al.  The toxicology of climate change: environmental contaminants in a warming world. , 2009, Environment international.

[76]  James W. Jones,et al.  Global climate change and US agriculture , 1990, Nature.

[77]  A. Allepuz,et al.  Assessment of the risk of a bluetongue outbreak in Europe caused by Culicoides midges introduced through intracontinental transport and trade networks , 2013, Medical and veterinary entomology.

[78]  C. Kolar,et al.  Progress in invasion biology: predicting invaders. , 2001, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[79]  J. Biesmeijer,et al.  Global pollinator declines: trends, impacts and drivers. , 2010, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[80]  D. Simberloff,et al.  BIOTIC INVASIONS: CAUSES, EPIDEMIOLOGY, GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES, AND CONTROL , 2000 .

[81]  Nelson Lima,et al.  How will climate change affect mycotoxins in food , 2010 .

[82]  D. Bebber,et al.  Crop pests and pathogens move polewards in a warming world , 2013 .