A hybrid ensemble approach for enterprise credit risk assessment based on Support Vector Machine

Enterprise credit risk assessment has long been regarded as a critical topic and many statistical and intelligent methods have been explored for this issue. However there are no consistent conclusions on which methods are better. Recent researches suggest combining multiple classifiers, i.e., ensemble learning, may have a better performance. In this paper, we propose a new hybrid ensemble approach, called RSB-SVM, which is based on two popular ensemble strategies, i.e., bagging and random subspace and uses Support Vector Machine (SVM) as base learner. As there are two different factors, i.e., bootstrap selection of instances and random selection of features, encouraging diversity in RSB-SVM, it would be advantageous to get better performance. The enterprise credit risk dataset, which includes 239 companies' financial records and is collected by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, is selected to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of proposed method. Experimental results reveal that RSB-SVM can be used as an alternative method for enterprise credit risk assessment.

[1]  อนิรุธ สืบสิงห์,et al.  Data Mining Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques , 2014 .

[2]  Thomas G. Dietterich An Experimental Comparison of Three Methods for Constructing Ensembles of Decision Trees: Bagging, Boosting, and Randomization , 2000, Machine Learning.

[3]  J. Freidman,et al.  Multivariate adaptive regression splines , 1991 .

[4]  David H. Wolpert,et al.  Stacked generalization , 1992, Neural Networks.

[5]  Chihli Hung,et al.  A selective ensemble based on expected probabilities for bankruptcy prediction , 2009, Expert Syst. Appl..

[6]  Chih-Fong Tsai,et al.  Using neural network ensembles for bankruptcy prediction and credit scoring , 2008, Expert Syst. Appl..

[7]  Jian Ma,et al.  A comparative assessment of ensemble learning for credit scoring , 2011, Expert Syst. Appl..

[8]  Ingoo Han,et al.  A case-based approach using inductive indexing for corporate bond rating , 2001, Decis. Support Syst..

[9]  Ling Liu,et al.  Encyclopedia of Database Systems , 2009, Encyclopedia of Database Systems.

[10]  Johan A. K. Suykens,et al.  Benchmarking state-of-the-art classification algorithms for credit scoring , 2003, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[11]  Gordon V. Karels,et al.  Multivariate Normality and Forecasting of Business Bankruptcy , 1987 .

[12]  Corinna Cortes,et al.  Support-Vector Networks , 1995, Machine Learning.

[13]  D. Opitz,et al.  Popular Ensemble Methods: An Empirical Study , 1999, J. Artif. Intell. Res..

[14]  L. Thomas A survey of credit and behavioural scoring: forecasting financial risk of lending to consumers , 2000 .

[15]  Robert E. Schapire,et al.  The strength of weak learnability , 1990, Mach. Learn..

[16]  David J. Hand,et al.  Statistical Classification Methods in Consumer Credit Scoring: a Review , 1997 .

[17]  Soushan Wu,et al.  Credit rating analysis with support vector machines and neural networks: a market comparative study , 2004, Decis. Support Syst..

[18]  J. Stuart Aitken,et al.  Multiple algorithms for fraud detection , 2000, Knowl. Based Syst..

[19]  Leo Breiman,et al.  Bagging Predictors , 1996, Machine Learning.

[20]  Alan K. Reichert,et al.  An Examination of the Conceptual Issues Involved in Developing Credit-Scoring Models , 1983 .

[21]  Mu-Chen Chen,et al.  Credit scoring with a data mining approach based on support vector machines , 2007, Expert Syst. Appl..

[22]  David West,et al.  Neural network credit scoring models , 2000, Comput. Oper. Res..

[23]  Leo Breiman,et al.  Random Forests , 2001, Machine Learning.

[24]  Ralf Stecking,et al.  Support vector machines for classifying and describing credit applicants: detecting typical and critical regions , 2005, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[25]  Kin Keung Lai,et al.  Credit risk assessment with a multistage neural network ensemble learning approach , 2008, Expert Syst. Appl..

[26]  Tin Kam Ho,et al.  The Random Subspace Method for Constructing Decision Forests , 1998, IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell..

[27]  Evelien de Bruijn,et al.  Ensemble , 1985, The Fairchild Books Dictionary of Fashion.

[28]  Vijay S. Desai,et al.  A comparison of neural networks and linear scoring models in the credit union environment , 1996 .

[29]  Loris Nanni,et al.  An experimental comparison of ensemble of classifiers for bankruptcy prediction and credit scoring , 2009, Expert Syst. Appl..

[30]  G DietterichThomas An Experimental Comparison of Three Methods for Constructing Ensembles of Decision Trees , 2000 .

[31]  Vladimir N. Vapnik,et al.  The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory , 2000, Statistics for Engineering and Information Science.