100 Years of Earth System Model Development

Today’s global Earth system models began as simple regional models of tropospheric weather systems. Over the past century, the physical realism of the models has steadily increased, while the scope of the models has broadened to include the global troposphere and stratosphere, the ocean, the vegetated land surface, and terrestrial ice sheets. This chapter gives an approximately chronological account of the many and profound conceptual and technological advances that made today’s models possible. For brevity, we omit any discussion of the roles of chemistry and biogeochemistry, and terrestrial ice sheets.

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[2]  Robert Pincus,et al.  The CLAW DSL: Abstractions for Performance Portable Weather and Climate Models , 2018, PASC.

[3]  G. Zängl,et al.  ICON‐A, the Atmosphere Component of the ICON Earth System Model: I. Model Description , 2018, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.

[4]  Noah D. Brenowitz,et al.  Prognostic Validation of a Neural Network Unified Physics Parameterization , 2018, Geophysical Research Letters.

[5]  Pierre Gentine,et al.  Could Machine Learning Break the Convection Parameterization Deadlock? , 2018, Geophysical Research Letters.

[6]  C. Bitz,et al.  An Emergent Sea Ice Floe Size Distribution in a Global Coupled Ocean‐Sea Ice Model , 2018, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans.

[7]  Benjamin W. Green,et al.  Subseasonal Forecasting with an Icosahedral, Vertically Quasi-Lagrangian Coupled Model. Part I: Model Overview and Evaluation of Systematic Errors , 2018 .

[8]  R. Buizza,et al.  CERA‐20C: A Coupled Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century , 2018 .

[9]  R. Hogan,et al.  Fast matrix treatment of 3-D radiative transfer in vegetation canopies: SPARTACUS-Vegetation 1.1 , 2017, Geoscientific Model Development.

[10]  R. Reynolds,et al.  The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project , 1996, Renewable Energy.

[11]  S. Bony,et al.  RCEMIP: Radiative Convective Equilibrium Model Inter-comparison Project , 2017 .

[12]  A M Michalak,et al.  Uncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions , 2017, Scientific Reports.

[13]  C. Hannay,et al.  The path to CAM6: coupled simulations with CAM5.4 and CAM5.5 , 2017 .

[14]  C. Bretherton,et al.  Toward low‐cloud‐permitting cloud superparameterization with explicit boundary layer turbulence , 2017 .

[15]  Peter Korn,et al.  Formulation of an unstructured grid model for global ocean dynamics , 2017, J. Comput. Phys..

[16]  V. Larson,et al.  Framework for improvement by vertical enhancement: A simple approach to improve representation of low and high‐level clouds in large‐scale models , 2017 .

[17]  R. Dickinson,et al.  Reexamination and further development of two‐stream canopy radiative transfer models for global land modeling , 2017 .

[18]  A. D. Del Genio,et al.  An Improved Convective Ice Parameterization for the NASA GISS Global Climate Model and Impacts on Cloud Ice Simulation. , 2017, Journal of climate.

[19]  A. P. Siebesma,et al.  Climate goals and computing the future of clouds , 2017 .

[20]  C. Bitz,et al.  Sea ice in Earth system models , 2016 .

[21]  Joon-Hee Jung Simulation of orographic effects with a Quasi‐3‐D Multiscale Modeling Framework: Basic algorithm and preliminary results , 2016 .

[22]  Jason A. Milbrandt,et al.  The Pan-Canadian High Resolution (2.5 km) Deterministic Prediction System , 2016 .

[23]  Venkatramani Balaji,et al.  Coarse-grained component concurrency in Earth system modeling: parallelizing atmospheric radiative transfer in the GFDL AM3 model using the Flexible Modeling System coupling framework , 2016 .

[24]  D. Lüthi,et al.  Towards European-scale convection-resolving climate simulations with GPUs: a study with COSMO 4.19 , 2016 .

[25]  Patrick Heimbach,et al.  OMIP contribution to CMIP6: experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project , 2016 .

[26]  B. Mayer,et al.  Representing 3‐D cloud radiation effects in two‐stream schemes: 1. Longwave considerations and effective cloud edge length , 2016 .

[27]  B. Mayer,et al.  Representing 3‐D cloud radiation effects in two‐stream schemes: 2. Matrix formulation and broadband evaluation , 2016 .

[28]  V. Ramaswamy,et al.  Uncertainty in Model Climate Sensitivity Traced to Representations of Cumulus Precipitation Microphysics , 2016 .

[29]  Veronika Eyring,et al.  Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization , 2015 .

[30]  Andrew Gettelman,et al.  A unified parameterization of clouds and turbulence using CLUBB and subcolumns in the Community Atmosphere Model , 2015 .

[31]  E. Tziperman,et al.  A prognostic model of the sea-ice floe size and thickness distribution , 2015 .

[32]  C. Zarzycki,et al.  Experimental Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Using a Variable-Resolution Global Model , 2015 .

[33]  Peter Bauer,et al.  The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction , 2015, Nature.

[34]  M. Duda,et al.  A Semi-Implicit Version of the MPAS-Atmosphere Dynamical Core , 2015 .

[35]  R. Courant,et al.  On the Partial Difference Equations, of Mathematical Physics , 2015 .

[36]  Robert Pincus,et al.  Radiative flux and forcing parameterization error in aerosol‐free clear skies , 2015, Geophysical research letters.

[37]  Stanley G. Benjamin,et al.  A Vertically Flow-Following Icosahedral Grid Model for Medium-Range and Seasonal Prediction. Part I: Model Description , 2015 .

[38]  Andrew Gettelman,et al.  Advanced two-moment bulk microphysics for global models. Part I: off-line tests and comparison with other schemes. , 2015 .

[39]  Andrew T. Wittenberg,et al.  Impacts on Ocean Heat from Transient Mesoscale Eddies in a Hierarchy of Climate Models , 2015 .

[40]  H. Morrison,et al.  Parameterization of Cloud Microphysics Based on the Prediction of Bulk Ice Particle Properties. Part I: Scheme Description and Idealized Tests , 2015 .

[41]  G. Zängl,et al.  The ICON (ICOsahedral Non‐hydrostatic) modelling framework of DWD and MPI‐M: Description of the non‐hydrostatic dynamical core , 2015 .

[42]  D. Lawrence,et al.  A new synoptic scale resolving global climate simulation using the Community Earth System Model , 2014 .

[43]  T. Ringler,et al.  Impact of Variable-Resolution Meshes on Midlatitude Baroclinic Eddies Using CAM-MPAS-A , 2014 .

[44]  Takemasa Miyoshi,et al.  The Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model: description and development , 2014, Progress in Earth and Planetary Science.

[45]  G. Thompson,et al.  A Study of Aerosol Impacts on Clouds and Precipitation Development in a Large Winter Cyclone , 2014 .

[46]  S. Griffies,et al.  On Geometrical Aspects of Interior Ocean Mixing , 2014 .

[47]  M. Diamantakis,et al.  An inherently mass‐conserving semi‐implicit semi‐Lagrangian discretization of the deep‐atmosphere global non‐hydrostatic equations , 2014 .

[48]  J. Bacmeister,et al.  Effects of vertical resolution and nonorographic gravity wave drag on the simulated climate in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 , 2014 .

[49]  P. Cox,et al.  Emergent constraints on climate‐carbon cycle feedbacks in the CMIP5 Earth system models , 2014 .

[50]  Jean Côté,et al.  Staggered Vertical Discretization of the Canadian Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Model Using a Coordinate of the Log-Hydrostatic-Pressure Type , 2014 .

[51]  A. Arakawa,et al.  Modeling the moist‐convective atmosphere with a Quasi‐3‐D Multiscale Modeling Framework (Q3D MMF) , 2014 .

[52]  Vincent Heuveline,et al.  Simulation of tropical-cyclone-like vortices in shallow-water ICON-hex using goal-oriented r-adaptivity , 2014 .

[53]  A. Scott Denning,et al.  Impact of Evapotranspiration on Dry Season Climate in the Amazon Forest , 2014 .

[54]  Terry Haut,et al.  An Asymptotic Parallel-in-Time Method for Highly Oscillatory PDEs , 2013, SIAM J. Sci. Comput..

[55]  J. Randerson,et al.  Causes and implications of persistent atmospheric carbon dioxide biases in Earth System Models , 2013 .

[56]  David A. Randall,et al.  Optimized Icosahedral Grids: Performance of Finite-Difference Operators and Multigrid Solver , 2013 .

[57]  D. P. Schanen,et al.  Higher-Order Turbulence Closure and Its Impact on Climate Simulations in the Community Atmosphere Model , 2013 .

[58]  Nigel Wood,et al.  Runge-Kutta IMEX schemes for the Horizontally Explicit/Vertically Implicit (HEVI) solution of wave equations , 2013, J. Comput. Phys..

[59]  Bormin Huang,et al.  GPU acceleration experience with RRTMG long wave radiation model , 2013, Remote Sensing.

[60]  T. Dubos,et al.  A conservative adaptive wavelet method for the shallow‐water equations on staggered grids , 2013 .

[61]  Philip W. Jones,et al.  A multi-resolution approach to global ocean modeling , 2013 .

[62]  Sergey Danilov,et al.  Ocean modeling on unstructured meshes , 2013 .

[63]  W. Collins,et al.  The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research , 2013 .

[64]  Brian Cairns,et al.  Implications of the Observed Mesoscale Variations of Clouds for Earth's Radiation Budget , 2013 .

[65]  A. Arakawa,et al.  A Unified Representation of Deep Moist Convection in Numerical Modeling of the Atmosphere. Part II , 2013 .

[66]  M. Balmaseda,et al.  Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4 , 2013 .

[67]  Günther Zängl,et al.  The ICON-1.2 hydrostatic atmospheric dynamical core on triangular grids – Part 1: Formulation and performance of the baseline version , 2013 .

[68]  S. Krueger,et al.  A simplified PDF parameterization of subgrid‐scale clouds and turbulence for cloud‐resolving models , 2013 .

[69]  B. Stevens,et al.  Atmospheric component of the MPI‐M Earth System Model: ECHAM6 , 2013 .

[70]  A. Kirkevåg,et al.  The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate , 2013 .

[71]  E. Hunke,et al.  Two modes of sea‐ice gravity drainage: A parameterization for large‐scale modeling , 2013 .

[72]  P. Cox,et al.  Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability , 2013, Nature.

[73]  J. Harrington,et al.  A Method for Adaptive Habit Prediction in Bulk Microphysical Models. Part I: Theoretical Development , 2013 .

[74]  A. Arakawa,et al.  A Unified Representation of Deep Moist Convection in Numerical Modeling of the Atmosphere. Part I , 2013 .

[75]  Michel Tsamados,et al.  Impact of a new anisotropic rheology on simulations of Arctic sea ice , 2013 .

[76]  K.,et al.  Carbon–Concentration and Carbon–Climate Feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth System Models , 2012 .

[77]  Todd D. Ringler,et al.  A Multiscale Nonhydrostatic Atmospheric Model Using Centroidal Voronoi Tesselations and C-Grid Staggering , 2012 .

[78]  Richard J. Greatbatch,et al.  Physical processes that impact the evolution of global mean sea level in ocean climate models , 2012 .

[79]  M. Oppenheimer,et al.  Investigation of land ice‐ocean interaction with a fully coupled ice‐ocean model: 2. Sensitivity to external forcings , 2012 .

[80]  Richard Neale,et al.  Toward a Minimal Representation of Aerosols in Climate Models: Description and Evaluation in the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5 , 2012 .

[81]  Atul K. Jain,et al.  North American Carbon Program (NACP) regional interim synthesis: Terrestrial biospheric model intercomparison , 2012 .

[82]  Ronald,et al.  GFDL’s ESM2 Global Coupled Climate–Carbon Earth System Models. Part I: Physical Formulation and Baseline Simulation Characteristics , 2012 .

[83]  Timothy Shippert,et al.  The Continual Intercomparison of Radiation Codes: Results from Phase I , 2012 .

[84]  Marika M. Holland,et al.  Improved sea ice shortwave radiation physics in CCSM4: The impact of melt ponds and aerosols on Arctic Sea ice , 2012 .

[85]  S. Bates,et al.  The CCSM4 Ocean Component , 2012 .

[86]  Mark A. Taylor,et al.  CAM-SE: A scalable spectral element dynamical core for the Community Atmosphere Model , 2012, Int. J. High Perform. Comput. Appl..

[87]  Mariana Vertenstein,et al.  A new flexible coupler for earth system modeling developed for CCSM4 and CESM1 , 2012, Int. J. High Perform. Comput. Appl..

[88]  M. Jeroen Molemaker,et al.  Are there inescapable issues prohibiting the use of terrain-following coordinates in climate models? , 2012 .

[89]  Vivian Lee,et al.  The Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale model on the Yin‐Yang grid system , 2011 .

[90]  Mark A. Liniger,et al.  A global reanalysis of vegetation phenology , 2011 .

[91]  R. B. Jackson,et al.  A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World’s Forests , 2011, Science.

[92]  William M. Putman,et al.  Cloud‐system resolving simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System global atmospheric model (GEOS‐5) , 2011 .

[93]  S. Schubert,et al.  MERRA: NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications , 2011 .

[94]  Jean-Christophe Golaz,et al.  Sensitivity of the Aerosol Indirect Effect to Subgrid Variability in the Cloud Parameterization of the GFDL Atmosphere General Circulation Model AM3 , 2011 .

[95]  Thomas P. Ackerman,et al.  A Cloud-Resolving Model with an Adaptive Vertical Grid for Boundary Layer Clouds , 2011 .

[96]  J. Thepaut,et al.  The ERA‐Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system , 2011 .

[97]  Peter H. Lauritzen,et al.  A flux-form version of the conservative semi-Lagrangian multi-tracer transport scheme (CSLAM) on the cubed sphere grid , 2011, J. Comput. Phys..

[98]  Xiaoliang Song,et al.  Microphysics parameterization for convective clouds in a global climate model: Description and single‐column model tests , 2011 .

[99]  John Marshall,et al.  Super-parameterization in ocean modeling: Application to deep convection , 2011 .

[100]  Paul N. Edwards,et al.  History of climate modeling , 2011 .

[101]  Alan Gadian,et al.  Cloud‐aerosol interactions for boundary layer stratocumulus in the Lagrangian Cloud Model , 2010 .

[102]  Simon Unterstrasser,et al.  Study of contrail microphysics in the vortex phase with a Lagrangian particle tracking model , 2010 .

[103]  E. Volodin,et al.  Simulating present-day climate with the INMCM4.0 coupled model of the atmospheric and oceanic general circulations , 2010 .

[104]  Spencer R. Weart,et al.  The development of general circulation models of climate , 2010 .

[105]  Jen-Ping Chen,et al.  A Classical-Theory-Based Parameterization of Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation by Mineral Dust, Soot, and Biological Particles in a Global Climate Model , 2010 .

[106]  Uang,et al.  The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis , 2010 .

[107]  M. D. Petters,et al.  Predicting global atmospheric ice nuclei distributions and their impacts on climate , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[108]  Alexander E. MacDonald,et al.  On the Use of an Adaptive, Hybrid-Isentropic Vertical Coordinate in Global Atmospheric Modeling , 2010 .

[109]  David A. Randall,et al.  An ocean‐atmosphere climate simulation with an embedded cloud resolving model , 2010 .

[110]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide , 2009 .

[111]  U. Lohmann,et al.  Sensitivity studies of different aerosol indirect effects in mixed-phase clouds , 2009 .

[112]  J. Randerson,et al.  Carbon-nitrogen interactions regulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks: results from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model , 2009 .

[113]  J. Gregory,et al.  Quantifying Carbon Cycle Feedbacks , 2009 .

[114]  David A. Randall,et al.  Design of a Nonhydrostatic Atmospheric Model Based on a Generalized Vertical Coordinate , 2009 .

[115]  George C. Hurtt,et al.  Carbon cycling under 300 years of land use change: Importance of the secondary vegetation sink , 2009 .

[116]  Hartmut Peters,et al.  Improving Oceanic Overflow Representation in Climate Models: The Gravity Current Entrainment Climate Process Team , 2009 .

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[119]  S. Shima,et al.  The super‐droplet method for the numerical simulation of clouds and precipitation: a particle‐based and probabilistic microphysics model coupled with a non‐hydrostatic model , 2007, physics/0701103.

[120]  T. Fichefet,et al.  Simulating the mass balance and salinity of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice 2: Importance of sea ice salinity variations , 2009 .

[121]  A. Denning,et al.  Remote sensing data assimilation for a prognostic phenology model , 2008 .

[122]  Peter Lynch,et al.  Forecasts by PHONIAC , 2008 .

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[125]  I. C. Prentice,et al.  Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate‐carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) , 2008 .

[126]  Liming Zhou,et al.  Dynamics of leaf area for climate and weather models , 2008 .

[127]  Andrew Gettelman,et al.  A new two-moment bulk stratiform cloud microphysics scheme in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3 (CAM3). Part I: Description and numerical tests , 2008 .

[128]  Kristine C. Harper,et al.  Weather by the Numbers: The Genesis of Modern Meteorology , 2008 .

[129]  Robert Pincus,et al.  The Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation: an assessment using several global atmospheric models , 2008 .

[130]  Robin J. Hogan,et al.  Tripleclouds: An Efficient Method for Representing Horizontal Cloud Inhomogeneity in 1D Radiation Schemes by Using Three Regions at Each Height , 2008 .

[131]  B. Fox‐Kemper,et al.  Parameterization of Mixed Layer Eddies. Part I. Theory and Diagnosis , 2008 .

[132]  M. Rodwell,et al.  Toward Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts , 2008 .

[133]  Peter H. Lauritzen,et al.  Monotone and Conservative Cascade Remapping between Spherical Grids (CaRS): Regular Latitude–Longitude and Cubed-Sphere Grids , 2008 .

[134]  K. Oleson,et al.  Use of FLUXNET in the Community Land Model development , 2008 .

[135]  Scott D. Miller,et al.  Seasonal drought stress in the Amazon: Reconciling models and observations , 2008 .

[136]  Masaki Satoh,et al.  Nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) for global cloud resolving simulations , 2008, J. Comput. Phys..

[137]  John Thuburn,et al.  Some conservation issues for the dynamical cores of NWP and climate models , 2008, J. Comput. Phys..

[138]  P. Oke,et al.  Eddy-resolving ocean circulation in the Asian Australian region inferred from an ocean reanalysis effort , 2008 .

[139]  K. Treseder,et al.  Nitrogen limitation of net primary productivity in terrestrial ecosystems is globally distributed. , 2008, Ecology.

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[141]  Stephen J. Thomas,et al.  A Comparison of Two Shallow-Water Models with Nonconforming Adaptive Grids , 2007, physics/0702133.

[142]  V. Bjerknes,et al.  Das Problem der Wettervorhersage, betrachtet vom Standpunkte der Mechanic und der Physik , 2008 .

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[144]  Peter E. Thornton,et al.  Influence of carbon‐nitrogen cycle coupling on land model response to CO2 fertilization and climate variability , 2007 .

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[146]  U. Lohmann,et al.  Introduction of prognostic rain in ECHAM5: design and single column model simulations , 2007 .

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[153]  G. Williams,et al.  Antarctic coastal polynya response to climate change , 2007 .

[154]  Gregory J. Tripoli,et al.  The Spectral Ice Habit Prediction System (SHIPS). Part I: Model Description and Simulation of the Vapor Deposition Process , 2007 .

[155]  S. Kobayashi,et al.  The JRA-25 Reanalysis , 2007 .

[156]  J. Penner,et al.  Global atmospheric chemistry: Integrating over fractional cloud cover , 2007 .

[157]  Paul Ginoux,et al.  Modeling the interactions between aerosols and liquid water clouds with a self-consistent cloud scheme in a general circulation model , 2007 .

[158]  Stephen Sitch,et al.  FLUXNET and modelling the global carbon cycle , 2007 .

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[161]  John F. Mustard,et al.  A curve fitting procedure to derive inter-annual phenologies from time series of noisy satellite NDVI data , 2007 .

[162]  Jean-Louis Roujean,et al.  Ability of the land surface model ISBA‐A‐gs to simulate leaf area index at the global scale: Comparison with satellites products , 2006 .

[163]  L. K. Gohar,et al.  Radiative forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases: Estimates from climate models in the Intergovernme , 2006 .

[164]  Wolfgang Lucht,et al.  Terrestrial vegetation redistribution and carbon balance under climate change , 2006, Carbon balance and management.

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[167]  William H. Lipscomb,et al.  Influence of the Sea Ice Thickness Distribution on Polar Climate in CCSM3 , 2006 .

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[171]  B. Samuels,et al.  GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part II: The Baseline Ocean Simulation , 2006 .

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[202]  Robert E. Dickinson,et al.  A Two-Big-Leaf Model for Canopy Temperature, Photosynthesis, and Stomatal Conductance , 2004 .

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[205]  R. Betts,et al.  Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century , 2004 .

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[207]  G. Grell,et al.  Mesoscale Weather Prediction with the RUC Hybrid Isentropic–Terrain-Following Coordinate Model , 2004 .

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[210]  J. Berry,et al.  A biochemical model of photosynthetic CO2 assimilation in leaves of C3 species , 1980, Planta.

[211]  Alistair Adcroft,et al.  Rescaled height coordinates for accurate representation of free-surface flows in ocean circulation models , 2004 .

[212]  K. Oleson,et al.  A dynamic global vegetation model for use with climate models: concepts and description of simulated vegetation dynamics , 2003 .

[213]  E. Clothiaux,et al.  Assessing 1D atmospheric solar radiative transfer models: Interpretation and handling of unresolved clouds , 2003 .

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