Nonlinear climate dynamics: From deterministic behaviour to stochastic excitability and chaos

Glacial-interglacial cycles are global climatic changes which have characterised the last 3 million years. The eight latest glacial-interglacial cycles represent changes in sea level over 100 m, and their average duration was around 100 000 years. There is a long tradition of modelling glacial-interglacial cycles with low-order dynamical systems. In one view, the cyclic phenomenon is caused by non-linear interactions between components of the climate system: The dynamical system model which represents Earth dynamics has a limit cycle. In an another view, the variations in ice volume and ice sheet extent are caused by changes in Earth's orbit, possibly amplified by feedbacks. This response and internal feedbacks need to be non-linear to explain the asymmetric character of glacial-interglacial cycles and their duration. A third view sees glacial-interglacial cycles as a limit cycle synchronised on the orbital forcing.