Simulating the Risks from Aircraft Debris to the Public on the Ground

The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) identify an Airprox to be a situation in which, in the opinion of a pilot or air traffic services personnel, the distance between aircraft as well as their relative positions and speed have been such that the safety of the aircraft involved may have been compromised. These are relatively rare events but they must be reported and investigated in order to reduce future risks. Airprox investigations and similar studies into near-miss incidents focus on the risk to passengers and crew. They do not consider the impact of debris. This raises concerns when, for example, the Bijlmermeer crash led to the deaths of 39 people on the ground. This paper presents a system that was developed to simulate the risks from aircraft debris on ground-based infrastructures. The system was developed and validated with help from Airprox investigators. To this end, a User Centered Design process was applied; analysing the activities and needs of potential users from two European investigation agencies. The following pages present the key design decisions, provide insights into the development process and identify limitations with our existing system. The closing sections identify further applications of this approach and suggest areas for further work.