The generation of doctorates and their feedback into higher education

Abstract The dynamic effects of alternative manpower policies and programs can be “pretested” in a computer based simulation. It is generally recognized that the production of Doctorates depends to a large degree on the Doctorate-holding faculty. Because the doctorate holders are in great demand by the other sectors of the economy, a circular or a “feedback” situation exists. The problem is further complicated by the availability of developed student talent and by various socioeconomic conditions existing at different periods of time within two or three decades prior to the time a study is made. This paper attempts to develop a conceptual and a mathematical model to study the production of Doctorates, Masters' and Baccalaureate degrees and their feedback into higher education. The model consisting of over 200 non-linear difference equations is programmed for computer simulation and validation against historical data. Currently simulation is used to describe what has happened in the past. Once this phase is accomplished, the model can be used to prescribe what will happen in the future with a fair level of confidence.