Modelling car-following behaviour with lateral separation and overtaking expectation

To better simulate car-following behaviour, this paper presents a new model that considers the effects of lateral separation and overtaking expectation based on optimal velocity model. A stability condition of the proposed model is obtained using the theory of linear systems. The stability condition reveals that when lateral separation and overtaking expectation increase, the stability region of the traffic flow increases at a low traffic density but decreases at a high traffic density. A genetic algorithm is adopted to calibrate the model using two trajectory data sets: one collected in the next-generation simulation programme and one collected in Guangzhou, China. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to demonstrate the robustness of the proposed model with respect to parameter uncertainty. Model validation results indicate that by considering the lateral separation and overtaking expectation the new model can better simulate car-following behaviour than the existing ones, especially in some complex driving conditions.