Application of grey model to forecast incidence trend of intestinal infectious diseases

Objective To forecast the incidence trend of intestinal infectious diseases in Hangzhou Economic and Technology Development Zone (HEDZ), and provide the references for the government. Methods Based on the incidence data of intestinal infectious diseases in HEDZ from 2001 to 2007, the grey systemic Gm (1, 1) forecast model was established. Results The grey systemic forecast model was Y(t+1)=-28 723.45e-0.0018 t+28 849.28. The goodness-of-fit test indicated that the precision (degree 2) was qualified (C0.50,p0.95) and the grey model was capable of forecasting mid or long-term incidence trend of intestinal infectious diseases. Conclusion The results indicated that the incidence of intestinal infectious diseases in HEDZ might decline gradually in the near future years.