On a decision rule supported by a forecasting stage based on the decision maker’s coefficient of optimism

The paper contains a description of a new approach (called the SF + AS method, i.e. the scenario forecasting + alternative selection method) that can be used in decision making under uncertainty when pure optimal strategies are sought-after. This procedure takes into consideration the level of decision maker’s coefficient of optimism (or coefficient of pessimism) and consists of two stages: the true scenario forecasting (on the basis of the decision maker’s preferences) and the appropriate alternative selection by taking into account the payoffs of the appointed true scenario or the most probable scenarios. In contradiction to existing decision rules, this procedure assumes that the decision making process should involve only a part of the payoff matrix because only one state of nature will occur in the end. The second essential difference between the SF + AS method and other decision rules is that in the first one there is an attempt to appoint globally the best and the worst scenario (regardless the alternative considered). Meanwhile, other procedures determine the status of a given event depending on the decision.

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