MOVEMENT PATTERNS AND SPATIAL EPIDEMIOLOGY OF A PRION DISEASE IN MULE DEER POPULATION UNITS

Spatial patterns of disease occurrence across a landscape are likely products of both the ecological processes giving rise to underlying epidemics and the physical pathways of disease spread. Spatially explicit epidemic models often rely on assumptions about system boundaries and processes for spread that may not faithfully represent true patterns of host or vector distribution and movements. As a foundation for future modeling and parameter estimation, we evaluated potential influences of distribution and movements of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) on the spatial epidemiology of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in north-central Colorado. We used cluster techniques to define mule deer population units based on location data, and then used these as the sampling unit for subsequent analyses. We found marked differences in prevalence between population units that appeared at least partially related to deer movements. Migration (mean migration rate = 44%) rather than dispersal movements (≤2% dispersal rate) app...

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