Exact confidence regions for species assignment based on DNA markers

Assignment of individuals to correct species or population of origin based on a comparison of allele profiles has in recent years become more accurate due to improvements in DNA marker technology. A method of assessing the error in such assignment problems is presentes. The method is based on the exact hypergeometric distributions of contingency tables conditioned on marginal totals. The result is a confidence region of fixed confidence level. This confidence level is calculable exactly in principle, and estimable very accurately by simulation, without knowledge of the true population allele frequencies. Various properties of these techniques are examined through application to several examples of actual DNA marker data and through simulation studies. Methods which may reduce computation time are discussed and illustrated. Grâce a l'amelioration des techniques de marquage de l'ADN, l'affectation des individus a leur espece ou a leur population d'origine a partir de la comparaison de leurs profils d'alleles a fait des progres significatifs ces dernieres annees. C'est dans ce contexte que l'auteur presente une methode permettant d'evaluer les erreurs d'affectation. Cette technique est basee sur les distributions hypergeometriques exactes des tableaux de frequences, etant donne les marges. Elle produit une region de confiance dont le niveau est fixe. En principe, le niveau de confiance en question peut etre calcule de facon exacte; en pratique, il peut etre estime avec une grande precision au moyen de simulations, meme sans que l'on connaisse la veritable frequence des alleles dans la population. Plusieurs proprietes de ces techniques sont examinees par simulation et au moyen de divers exemples de sequences de marqueurs d'ADN reelles. L'auteur presente et illustre en outre des methodes de reduction du temps de calcul.

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