Flexibility and risk assessment of power grid planning schemes

It's one of the most important contents of power grid planning to perform its flexibility and risk assessment.In electricity market environment,it is a new challenge to the assessment that whether existing power grid planning can suit the uncertain factors or not and how to evaluate its flexibility and risk.In view of the impacts of uncertain factors in power grids and electricity markets,based on the basic principle of electricity market simulation,the Monte-Carlo simulation is introduced into flexibility and risk assessment of power grid planning under deregulation,and the basic idea,method and process of Monte-Carlo analysis for uncertain factors is applied to the market simulation and production simulation under electricity market condition are described in detail.Two main indices,i.e.,load and the price of power,are focused on to apply the whole thinking in the evaluation of Jiangsu power grid planning and combining the operation rules of East China regional electricity market,the market simulation as well as risk evaluation of power grid planning in the year of 2010 is carried out.The application results show that the proposed flexibility and risk assessment method,which is capable of finding out the important factors in electricity market and simulate the extreme scenarios,is a powerful tool for flexibility and risk assessment of power grid planning under deregulation.