Value of Travel Time Estimation Using Hierarchical Bayesian Mixed Logit Approach

This paper investigates the value of travel time (VOTT) of commuters traveling on toll facilities of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) and the New Jersey Turnpike (NJTPK) in a time-of-day pricing system. The methodology proposed to estimate VOTT develops hierarchical Bayesian mixed logit models using travel surveys conducted as part of evaluation studies of PANYNJ and NJTPK facilities. The proposed approach is a novel method for examining commuters' behavior on the basis of flexible model specifications. Empirical results show that travel time, toll, income, and departure time are statistically significant parameters affecting VOTT of commuters on PANYNJ toll facilities. Mean VOTT estimates are found to be about $16.5/h for PANYNJ E-ZPass peak users and about $15.15/h for PANYNJ E-ZPass off-peak users, with standard deviation estimates close to $6.45/h during peak periods and $5.72/h during off-peak hours. Similarly, mean VOTT estimates are found to be around $16.3/h for NJTPK E-ZPass peak users and about $14.79/h for NJTPK E-ZPass off-peak users, with standard deviation estimates close to $5.48/h during peak periods and $4.56/h during off-peak hours.

[1]  Peter E. Rossi,et al.  Bayesian Statistics and Marketing: Rossi/Bayesian Statistics and Marketing , 2006 .

[2]  David A. Hensher,et al.  The Mixed Logit Model: the State of Practice and Warnings for the Unwary , 2001 .

[3]  K. Axhausen,et al.  Income and Distance Elasticities of Values of Travel Time Savings: New Swiss Results , 2008 .

[4]  R. Christensen,et al.  A New Perspective on Priors for Generalized Linear Models , 1996 .

[5]  Joel Huber,et al.  Customer-Specific Taste Parameters and Mixed Logit , 1999 .

[6]  Juan de Dios Ortúzar,et al.  Preference Heterogeneity and Willingness to Pay for Travel Time Savings , 2004 .

[7]  Moshe Ben-Akiva,et al.  Estimation of travel demand models from multiple data sources , 1990 .

[8]  Clifford Winston,et al.  Econometric Issues in Estimating Consumer Preferences from Stated Preference Data: A Case Study of the Value of Automobile Travel Time , 2001, Review of Economics and Statistics.

[9]  Kaan Ozbay,et al.  Analysis of Time-of-Day Pricing Impacts at Port Authority of New York and New Jersey Facilities , 2005 .

[10]  David A. Hensher,et al.  USING VALUES OF TRAVEL TIME SAVINGS FOR TOLL ROADS: AVOIDING SOME COMMON ERRORS , 2004 .

[11]  Kay W. Axhausen,et al.  Evidence on the distribution of values of travel time savings from a six-week diary , 2004 .

[12]  Thierry Blayac,et al.  Value of travel time: a theoretical legitimization of some nonlinear representative utility in discrete choice models , 2001 .

[13]  Chris R. Swenson,et al.  Long-Run Changes in Driver Behavior Due to Variable Tolls , 2004 .

[14]  Mogens Fosgerau,et al.  Investigating the distribution of the value of travel time savings , 2006 .

[15]  K. DonaldW..  Generalized Method of Moments Estimation When a Parameter Is on a Boundary , 1999 .

[16]  Peter E. Rossi,et al.  Bayesian Statistics and Marketing , 2005 .

[17]  Purushottam W. Laud,et al.  On Bayesian Analysis of Generalized Linear Models Using Jeffreys's Prior , 1991 .

[18]  Chih-Wen Yang,et al.  MODELING MULTIPLE SOURCES OF HETEROGENEITY IN MODE CHOICE MODEL , 2005 .

[19]  Kaan Ozbay,et al.  Evaluation of Impacts of Time-of-Day Pricing Initiative on Car and Truck Traffic: Port Authority of New York and New Jersey , 2006 .

[20]  Mark F. Muriello,et al.  Value Pricing Toll Program at Port Authority of New York and New Jersey: Revenue for Transportation Investment and Incentives for Traffic Management , 2004 .

[21]  Philip Heidelberger,et al.  Simulation Run Length Control in the Presence of an Initial Transient , 1983, Oper. Res..

[22]  D. Poirier.  Frequentist and Subjectivist Perspectives on the Problems of Model Building in Economics , 1988 .

[23]  D. Andrews.  Estimation When a Parameter is on a Boundary , 1999 .

[24]  Kaan Ozbay,et al.  Evaluation Study of New Jersey Turnpike Authority's Time of Day Pricing Initiative , 2005 .

[25]  David A. Hensher,et al.  Towards a practical method to establish comparable values of travel time savings from stated choice experiments with differing design dimensions , 2006 .

[26]  Kenneth E. Train,et al.  Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation , 2016 .

[27]  Kenneth A. Small,et al.  Valuing time and reliability: assessing the evidence from road pricing demonstrations , 2003 .

[28]  K. Ozbay,et al.  Valuation of travel time and departure time choice in the presence of time-of-day pricing , 2008 .

[29]  Chandra R. Bhat,et al.  The Impact of Stop-Making and Travel Time Reliability on Commute Mode Choice , 2006 .

[30]  José Holguín-Veras,et al.  Evaluation Study of Port Authority of New York and New Jersey's Time of Day Pricing Initiative , 2005 .

[31]  Chandra R. Bhat,et al.  A UNIFIED MIXED LOGIT FRAMEWORK FOR MODELING REVEALED AND STATED PREFERENCES: FORMULATION AND APPLICATION TO CONGESTION PRICING ANALYSIS IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA , 2002 .

[32]  Óscar Álvarez,et al.  The value of time and transport policies in a parallel road network , 2007 .

[33]  John Geweke,et al.  Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department Staff Report 249 Using Simulation Methods for Bayesian Econometric Models: Inference, Development, and Communication , 2022 .

[34]  D. Brownstone,et al.  Drivers' Willingness-to-Pay to Reduce Travel Time: Evidence from the San Diego I-15 Congestion Pricing Project , 2002 .

[35]  D. Hensher.  The valuation of commuter travel time savings for car drivers: evaluating alternative model specifications , 2001 .