Use of caesium‐137 data to evaluate SHETRAN simulated long‐term erosion patterns in arable lands

The caesium-137 method of quantifying soil erosion is used to provide field data for validating the capability of the SHETRAN modelling system for predicting long-term (30-year) erosion rates and their spatial variability. Simulations were carried out for two arable farm sites (area 3–5 ha) in central England for which average annual erosion rates of 6·5 and 10·4 t ha−1 year−1 had already been determined using caesium-137 measurements. These rates were compared with a range of simulated values representing the uncertainty in model output derived from uncertainty in the evaluation of model parameters. A successful validation was achieved in that the simulation range contained the measured rate at both sites, whereas the spatial variability was reproduced excellently at one site and partially at the other. The results indicate that, as the caesium-137 technique measures the erosion caused by all the processes acting at a site, it is relevant to hydrologically based models such as SHETRAN only if erosion by wind, agricultural activities and other processes not represented in the model are insignificant. The results also indicate a need to reduce the uncertainty in model parameter evaluation. More generally, the caesium-137 technique is shown to provide field data that improve the severity of the validation procedure (accounting for internal as well as outlet conditions) and that add spatial variability to magnitude as a condition for identifying unrealistic parameter sets when seeking to reduce simulation uncertainty. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.