Multi-objective robust early stage ship design optimisation under uncertainty utilising surrogate models

Abstract The paper addresses the parametric design and multi-objective optimisation of ships under uncertainty, applying the Holistic Optimisation Design Approach. The methodology starts with the creation of a detailed parametric model that captures both the external and internal geometric characteristics of the vessel, along with the integration of a number of numerical tools, purposely developed in order to determine each variant's performance. This allows the evaluation of a multitude of merit functions and design constraints, all part of the optimisation problem. In contrast to previous approaches, the uncertainties introduced by the physical and financial environment are incorporated in the model, providing a more realistic representation of the solution space to the decision maker. The developed methodology is applied on a case study of a Ro-Pax ship, optimised in the concept design phase with regard to the minimisation of the total resistance, required freight rate and building cost.

[1]  N. Cressie The origins of kriging , 1990 .

[2]  R D Murphy,et al.  LEAST COST SHIP CHARACTERISTICS BY COMPUTER TECHNIQUES , 1963 .

[3]  Henrique M. Gaspar,et al.  Disruptive market conditions require new direction for vessel design practices and tools application , 2018 .

[4]  Kalyanmoy Deb,et al.  Multiobjective optimization , 1997 .

[5]  A. Dixit Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty , 1989, Journal of Political Economy.

[6]  David Andrews,et al.  State of the Art Report on Design Methodology , 1997 .

[7]  Robert F. Tichy,et al.  A Central Limit Theorem For Latin Hypercube Sampling With Dependence And Application To Exotic Basket Option Pricing , 2012, 1311.4698.

[8]  Evangelos Boulougouris,et al.  Rebooting SOLAS – impact of drafts on damage survivability of cruise ships , 2018 .

[9]  Apostolos Papanikolaou,et al.  Ship Design: Methodologies of Preliminary Design , 2014 .

[10]  Apostolos Papanikolaou,et al.  Holistic ship design optimization , 2010, Comput. Aided Des..

[11]  Kostas J. Spyrou,et al.  The Second Generation Intact Stability Criteria: An Overview of Development , 2011 .

[12]  H Nowacki,et al.  TANKER PRELIMINARY DESIGN-AN OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM WITH CONSTRAINTS , 1970 .

[13]  Evangelos Boulougouris,et al.  Impact assessment of wave statistics on ship survivability , 2017 .

[14]  Sergei Utyuzhnikov,et al.  Control of robust design in multiobjective optimization under uncertainties , 2012 .

[15]  Alexandros Priftis,et al.  Parametric design and holistic optimisation of post-panamax containerships , 2018 .

[16]  Kalyanmoy Deb,et al.  A fast and elitist multiobjective genetic algorithm: NSGA-II , 2002, IEEE Trans. Evol. Comput..

[17]  H. Schneekluth,et al.  Ship Design for Efficiency and Economy , 1987 .

[18]  Jian-Bo Yang,et al.  Multiple Criteria Decision Support in Engineering Design , 1998 .

[19]  David Lindley,et al.  Optimal Statistical Decisions , 1971 .

[20]  Robert Taggart Ship design and construction , 1980 .

[21]  Alexandros Priftis,et al.  Parametric design and multi-objective optimisation of containerships , 2016 .

[22]  Farrokh Mistree,et al.  DECISION-BASED DESIGN - A CONTEMPORARY PARADIGM FOR SHIP DESIGN , 1990 .

[23]  Sören Ehlers,et al.  Mission Based Ship Design Under Uncertain Arctic Sea Ice Conditions , 2015 .

[24]  Evangelos Boulougouris,et al.  A methodology for the holistic, simulation driven ship design optimization under uncertainty , 2018 .

[25]  J. Holtrop,et al.  AN APPROXIMATE POWER PREDICTION METHOD , 1982 .

[26]  M. D. McKay,et al.  A comparison of three methods for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a computer code , 2000 .