Modeling the resuspension of ash deposited during the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in spring 2010

[1] Eyjafjallajokull, a volcano in southern Iceland, erupted explosively in April and May 2010 depositing ash over a region of more than 3000 km2 to the east and southeast of the volcano. This deposited ash has been frequently remobilized by the wind causing concern for the health of Icelanders living in the region. An investigation was carried out to determine whether it would be possible to produce forecasts of days when high airborne ash concentrations were likely to occur. Information about the spatially varying surface characteristics of the region of deposited ash is not available so in the modeling approach adopted here ash is released from the surface at a rate proportional to the cube of the excess friction velocity (local friction velocity minus a threshold) only when the friction velocity exceeds a threshold. Movement of the resuspended ash is then modeled in a Lagrangian dispersion model. Modeled ash concentrations are compared to observed concentrations from two periods; PM10 observations between 23 May and 2 July 2010 and airborne particle counts between 21 September 2010 and 16 February 2011. More than 66% of the resuspension episodes between May and July are captured by the model and the relative magnitudes of the modeled episodes in this period are in good agreement with the observations. 66% of episodes between October and February are also captured by the model although there is an increase in the false alarm rate which appears to be due to the influence of precipitation.

[1]  Peter N. Francis,et al.  Simulated volcanic ash imagery: A method to compare NAME ash concentration forecasts with SEVIRI imagery for the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010 , 2012 .

[2]  G. McTainsh,et al.  Dust storm contributions to airborne particulate matter in Reykjavík, Iceland , 2011 .

[3]  T. Hassenkam,et al.  Characterization of Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash particles and a protocol for rapid risk assessment , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[4]  T. Wilson,et al.  Ash storms: impacts of wind-remobilised volcanic ash on rural communities and agriculture following the 1991 Hudson eruption, southern Patagonia, Chile , 2011 .

[5]  R. Draxler,et al.  An empirically derived emission algorithm for wind-blown dust , 2010 .

[6]  Marianne Guffanti,et al.  Volcanic hazards to airports , 2009 .

[7]  Stephan Weber,et al.  Flow characteristics and particle mass and number concentration variability within a busy urban street canyon , 2006 .

[8]  M. Harrison,et al.  The dust event of 17 April 2005 over Athens, Greece , 2006 .

[9]  R. Draxler,et al.  Determination of the contribution of northern Africa dust source areas to PM10 concentrations over the central Iberian Peninsula using the Hybrid Single‐Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) model , 2006 .

[10]  A. Staniforth,et al.  A new dynamical core for the Met Office's global and regional modelling of the atmosphere , 2005 .

[11]  James J. Simpson,et al.  Resuspension of Relic Volcanic Ash and Dust from Katmai: Still an Aviation Hazard , 2004 .

[12]  Deborah Jarvis,et al.  Volcanic ash and respiratory symptoms in children on the island of Montserrat, British West Indies , 2003, Occupational and environmental medicine.

[13]  P. Baxter,et al.  Assessment of the exposure of islanders to ash from the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, British West Indies , 2002, Occupational and environmental medicine.

[14]  J. Schwartz,et al.  The Lag Structure Between Particulate Air Pollution and Respiratory and Cardiovascular Deaths in 10 US Cities , 2001, Journal of occupational and environmental medicine.

[15]  S. Woodward,et al.  Modeling the atmospheric life cycle and radiative impact of mineral dust in the Hadley Centre climate model , 2001 .

[16]  Ó. Arnalds,et al.  Sandy deserts of Iceland: an overview , 2001 .

[17]  D. Stephenson.  Use of the “Odds Ratio” for Diagnosing Forecast Skill , 2000 .

[18]  Murphy,et al.  Cristobalite in volcanic ash of the soufriere hills volcano, montserrat, british west indies , 1999, Science.

[19]  G. Bergametti,et al.  Parametrization of the increase of the aeolian erosion threshold wind friction velocity due to soil moisture for arid and semi-arid areas , 1999 .

[20]  F. O. Hoffman,et al.  Test of existing mathematical models for atmospheric resuspension of radionuclides , 1998 .

[21]  F. O. Hoffman,et al.  Uncertainty of the long-term resuspension factor , 1997 .

[22]  B. Marticorena,et al.  Modeling the atmospheric dust cycle: 1. Design of a soil-derived dust emission scheme , 1995 .

[23]  Yaping Shao,et al.  Effect of Saltation Bombardment on the Entrainment of Dust by Wind , 1993 .

[24]  T. Casadevall.  Discussions and recommendations from the workshop on Impacts of volcanic Ash on Airport Facilities, Seattle, Washington, April 26-28, 1993 , 1993 .

[25]  J Schwartz,et al.  Air pollution and daily mortality: associations with particulates and acid aerosols. , 1992, Environmental research.

[26]  Ranjit M. Passi,et al.  Modeling dust emission caused by wind erosion , 1988 .

[27]  Toby N. Carlson,et al.  A two-dimensional numerical investigation of the dynamics and microphysics of Saharan dust storms , 1987 .

[28]  W. Lopushinsky,et al.  Wind-blown volcanic ash in forest and agricultural locations as related to meteorological conditions , 1986 .

[29]  L. Radke,et al.  Resuspension of volcanic ash from Mount St. Helens , 1983 .

[30]  D. Gillette,et al.  Threshold friction velocities and rupture moduli for crusted desert soils for the input of soil particles into the air , 1982 .

[31]  Lynn R. Anspaugh,et al.  Resuspension and redistribution of plutonium in soils , 1975 .

[32]  W. S. Chepil,et al.  DYNAMICS OF WIND EROSION: II. INITIATION OF SOIL MOVEMENT , 1945 .