COLLECTIVE DECISION-MAKING MODELS APPLIED TO LABOR NEGOTIATIONS IN THE NETHERLANDS: A COMPARISON BETWEEN AN EXCHANGE MODEL AND A CONFLICT MODEL

In this article two models of collective decision making, i.e. the Exchange of Voting Positions Model of Stokman and van Oosten and the Expected Utility Model of Bueno de Mesquita, are applied to the practice of labor negotiations in the Netherlands. The purpose of the study is to test the explanatory power of both models with regard to actual labor negotiation processes. Based on data regarding three variables, preferred outcomes, salience, and potential power, the models can simulate a process of collective decision making in a multilateral setting and with respect to a multi-issue agenda. The simulated process leads to predicted outcomes which will be compared with the actual outcomes after the actual negotiations have taken place. With the help of statistical tests regarding the predictive accuracy of the models, an answer will be given to the question of whether one or both of the models can give an adequate explanation of the outcomes of labor negotiation processes.