Determination of Forecasted Values of Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Based on Largest Lyapunov Exponent

The authors fistly analyze three kinds of topological properties of the adjacent orbits including approximate parallel,overlap and fold in the phase space in this paper;then according to the feature of load attractor and based on load series,a criterion for the choice of the forecasted results from the forecasting mode using the largest Lyapunov exponent is proposed.In addition,a selection method of adjacent orbit in the phase space of load attractor is also researched.Simulation results show that the improved load forecasting modeling strategy can avoid the blindness during the choice of forecasted value in original Lyapunov exponent forecasting mode,the selection of adjacent point of the load attractor is in accordance with the feature of power load series,and the established short-term load forecasting model can improve the accuracy of forecasting.