The Deterministic Mine Burial Prediction System

Abstract : This report documents the NRL Deterministic Mine Burial Prediction System; the software, which runs in MATLAB, is an attachment to this report. The purpose of the system is to provide a user-friendly software for operating newer, deterministic, mine burial prediction models for impact and scour burial that are products of a combined six-year program between ONR and NRL. This report presents an overview of the software, documents input data and computer platform requirements, and provides a user's guide with walkthroughs of example cases. A presentation of results and analysis from exercising the system to simulate impact and scour burial experiments using operational or operational-like inputs follow. Based on nonparametric hypothesis testing of simulation results with empirical data, the statistics generated from simulations of impact burial appear to provide useful predictions and uncertainty estimates when the simulations account for geotechnical variations. For scour burial, the use of the Simulating Waves Nearshore or WaveWatch-III model to drive the scour module qualitatively followed empirical burial trends, with variations in wave height prediction appearing to be a more significant factor in determining the accuracy of the scour burial prediction than uncertainty in grain size. Overall, the tests provide encouragement for the use of new mine burial prediction models to provide reasonable predictions of burial from operational input data.

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