Historical Trends in Base Metal Mining: Backcasting to Understand the Sustainability of Mining

The base metal mining sector has been and continues to remain an important endeavour in many parts of the world. The mining of copper, lead-zinc-silver and nickel has led to social and economic development but has also left significant and sometimes lasting environmental impacts. Metal mining is widely perceived to be unsustainable, often without question, since it is drawing down natural capital (ie. stock) - despite the productive output of mines now being considerably larger than at any time in history. What has underpinned this paradox ? and what are the long term trends in base metal mining ? and how can this knowledge be used to understand the current position and future challenges of base metal mining ? This paper will present long-term data on trends in base metal mining such as production, ore grades and economic resources, focussing on major mining countries such as Australia, Canada and the United States. By looking back to history, or 'backcasting' in sustainability language, we can better understand the historical challenges, patterns or factors that have shaped the base metal mining industry. This then helps us to understand the current and future challenges facing the base metals sector of the global mining industry. An oft-quoted saying for peak oil pundits is that of Saudi's former Oil Minister Ahmed Zaki Yamani: "The Stone Age came to an end not for the lack of stones and the oil age will end, but not for the lack of oil". Will the base metals mining sector go the same way ? That is, what has been the success rate for new technology, exploration, economics or perhaps environmental aspects which may constrain the sector or, conversely, help it to flourish ? This paper presents a unique insight into base metals over time, and provides a range of valuable but rarely compiled historical data.