Integrated Prognosis for Wind Turbine Gearbox Condition-Based Maintenance Considering Time-Varying Load and Crack Initiation Time Uncertainty

Maintenance management in wind energy industry has great impact on the overall wind power cost. Maintenance services are either supported by wind turbine manufacturers within warranty period, or managed by wind farm owners. With condition-based maintenance (CBM) strategy, maintenance activities are scheduled based on the predicted health conditions of wind turbine components, and accurate prognostics methods are critical for effective CBM. The reported studies on integrated health prognostics considered the uncertainty in crack initiation time (CIT) uncertainty, but did not incorporate time-varying loading conditions, which could also have a significant impact on future health condition and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. Constant loads were generally used to approximate the actual time-varying loading conditions. In this paper, an integrated prognostics method is proposed for wind turbine gearboxes considering both time-varying loading conditions and CIT uncertainty. As new condition monitoring observations are available, the distributions of both material model parameter and CIT are updated via Bayesian inference, and the failure time prediction is updated accordingly. An example is provided to demonstrate that the proposed time-varying load approach presents more benefits considering the uncertainty of CIT, with significant accuracy improvement comparing to the constant-load approach.