Ecosystem Modeling for Evaluation of Adaptive Management Policies in the Grand Canyon

Introduction Approach to Modeling Multiscale Policy and Ecosystem Dynamics Key Submodels and Comparisons of Model Predictions to Data Physical Submodel Hydrology Sediment budget Camping beaches Temperature Aquatic primary production Aquatic insect production Riparian plant communities and production of allochthonous detritus and insect inputs to the river Vertebrate indicator species Socioeconomic performance indicators Policy Predictions and Uncertainties Sustainability of policies for beach/habitat rebuilding Risks in assuming that physical habitat restoration will result in ecosystem restoration for native fishes Importance of backwater habitats Inability to evaluate experimental outcomes for native fishes with existing monitoring programs Conflicting objectives and trade-offs: uncertain costs and benefits of restoration Conclusion: Experimental Management Options for the Grand Canyon Responses to this Article Acknowledgments Literature Cited Appendix 1 Appendix 2 Appendix 3 Appendix 4 Appendix 5 Appendix 6 Appendix 7 Appendix 8 Appendix 9 Appendix 10 Appendix 11 Appendix 12 Appendix 13 Appendix 14 Appendix 15 Appendix 16 Erratum (added 3 April 2003) Conservation Ecology: Ecosystem Modeling for Evaluation of Adaptive ... http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol4/iss2/art1/ 1 of 42 4/20/2009 9:25 AM