Indian Ocean SST and Indian summer rainfall : Predictive relationships and their decadal variability

Abstract The authors examine relationships between Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability and the variability of the Indian monsoon, including analysis of potential long-lead predictions of Indian rainfall by regional SST and the influence of ENSO and decadal variability on the stability of the relationships. Using monthly gridded (4° × 4°) SST data from the Global Sea-Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (GISST) dataset that spans 1945–94, the correlation fields between the All-India Rainfall Index (AIRI) and SST fields over the tropical Indian Ocean are calculated. In the boreal fall and winter preceding the summer Indian monsoon, SST throughout the tropical Indian Ocean correlates positively with subsequent monsoon rainfall. Negative correlation occurs between SST and the AIRI in the subsequent autumn in the northern Indian Ocean only. A strong correlation (0.53) is found between the summer AIRI and the preceding December–February Arabian Sea SST. The correlation between the AIRI and the SST...

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