THE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF THE PREDICTED MANOEUVRING PERFORMANCE OF FULL BODIES SHIPS IN THE CASE OF MMG MATHEMATICAL MODEL

The effect of uncertainty in the estimation of the parameters of an MMG manoeuvring model is studied. The changes of one of the model parameters as well as multiple changes of the parameters are modelled. Analysis of the variance of the manoeuvring indices indicates a distinct influence of the model parameters on the resultant uncertainty of the manoeuvring indices. A simple ranking procedure orders the tested parameters of the model according to their influence on the manoeuvrability and uncertainty. The relative sensitivity parameters are introduced for easier description of the model parameters' influence. The uncertainty of the manoeuvring index estimation is a function of MMG model parameters; it is large for dynamically unstable ships that have been tested. Therefore the estimation of the model parameters' errors and resulting confidence bounds of the manoeuvring indices estimates is advised.