Approximate probabilistic methods for survivability/vulnerability analysis of strategic structures. Final report 1 Jun 77-15 Jul 78

Abstract : The major concepts and methods of probability and statistics that are of special significance to engineering are summarized, with emphasis on the potential applications in strategic structures problems. Approximations to well-established exact mathematical methods of probabilistic analysis were developed; these approximations are necessary for a sensible and effective implementation of the essential concepts in engineering, in the sense that they lead to simplifications that are consistent with the state and quality of available information, which (in practice) invariably must include subjective judgments. Applications in the development of probability-based relationships for the design of strategic structures were stressed; the required relationships can be developed so that the conventional (i.e. deterministic) methods of design may be retained. In particular, these may be in the form of safety factors that can be used in a conventional design format, in order to achieve a desired survivability in terms of a probability of survival. Similar relationships for target planning are also developed, and their significance identified and discussed. Several examples of strategic structural problems are developed to demonstrate the basic approach. (Author)