Precipitation forecast skill of different convective parameterization and microphysical schemes: Application for the cold season over Greece

Since March 2000, the MM5 model is running operationally at the National Observatory of Athens. For the definition of the model setup, namely the selection of the convective parameterization and the microphysical schemes, sensitivity of meso-β-scale simulations to different schemes has been investigated. This work focuses on the detailed comparison of MM5 simulations of eight precipitation events that occurred over the Greece during the cold period 1999–2000. Model results are compared against observations using statistical methods, in order to assess the agreement of predicted with observed precipitation amounts, the agreement of the areal coverage of precipitation and the correct placement of maxima and minima. Although all combinations showed a considerable forecast skill, the combination of the Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization scheme with the Shultz microphysical scheme demonstrated the best forecast skill and the more consistent behaviour.

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