On Consolidated Predictive Model of the Natural History of Breast Cancer Considering Primary Tumor and Primary Distant Metastases Growth

We propose a new mathematical growth model of primary tumor and primary metastases which may help to improve predicting accuracy of breast cancer process using an original mathematical model referred to CoM-IV and corresponding software. The CoM-IV model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and primary metastases; b) make forecast of patient survival; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of BC and facilitate optimisation of diagnostic tests. The CoM-IV enables us, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and primary metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarising: CoM-IV a) describes correctly primary tumor and primary distant metastases growth of IV (T1-4N0-3M1) stage with (N1-3) or without regional metastases in lymph nodes (N0); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and manifestation of primary metastases.