Generation of a Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Database
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A model capable of simulating tropical cyclone tracks and central pressure histories over the Coral Sea is described. The model is used to generate a large database of synthetic storms whose statistical characteristics are shown to be the same as those of the population of real storms. Each synthetic storm can be used, in conjunction with a separately developed wind field model, to drive numerical models for computing wave heights and water levels throughout the Great Barrier Reef. In this way, the sample size available for estimating extreme wave heights and water levels is greatly increased. The modelling approach assumes that each cyclone is an independent realisation of the same underlying stochastic process. Relatively simple autoregressive models are used for the lime series of latitude, longitude and central pressure. Synthetic distributions of landfalling points and intensities at landfall on the Queensland coast are presented.