Using Wikipedia to Predict Election OutcomesOnline Behavior as a Predictor of Voting

[1]  M. Lewis-Beck,et al.  Comparative election forecasting: Further insights from synthetic models , 2015 .

[2]  Robert S. Erikson,et al.  The Timeline of Presidential Election Campaigns , 2002, The Journal of Politics.

[3]  Costas Panagopoulos.  Campaign Dynamics in Battleground and Nonbattleground States , 2009 .

[4]  Panagiotis Takis Metaxas,et al.  Limits of Electoral Predictions Using Twitter , 2011, ICWSM.

[5]  Koleman Strumpf,et al.  Historical presidential betting markets , 2004 .

[6]  S. Asch.  Effects of Group Pressure Upon the Modification and Distortion of Judgments , 1951 .

[7]  Alan Abramowitz.  Forecasting in a Polarized Era: The Time for Change Model and the 2012 Presidential Election , 2012, PS: Political Science & Politics.

[8]  Matthew J. Lindberg,et al.  Feeling validated versus being correct: a meta-analysis of selective exposure to information. , 2009, Psychological bulletin.

[9]  Aage R. Clausen.  RESPONSE VALIDITY: VOTE REPORT , 1968 .

[10]  Drew A. Linzer.  Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting of Presidential Elections in the States , 2013 .

[11]  Tobias Preis,et al.  Quantifying the Relationship Between Financial News and the Stock Market , 2013, Scientific Reports.

[12]  Michael S. Lewis-Beck,et al.  Forecasting elections in Europe: Synthetic models , 2015 .

[13]  Taha Yasseri,et al.  Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success Based on Wikipedia Activity Big Data , 2012, PloS one.

[14]  Icek Ajzen,et al.  Explaining the Discrepancy between Intentions and Actions: The Case of Hypothetical Bias in Contingent Valuation , 2004, Personality & social psychology bulletin.

[15]  M. Radford,et al.  “If it is too inconvenient I'm not going after it:” Convenience as a critical factor in information-seeking behaviors , 2011 .

[16]  Ramanathan V. Guha,et al.  The predictive power of online chatter , 2005, KDD '05.

[17]  B. W. Yap,et al.  Comparisons of various types of normality tests , 2011 .

[18]  Jacob Cohen,et al.  Applied multiple regression/correlation analysis for the behavioral sciences , 1979 .

[19]  Isabell M. Welpe,et al.  Predicting Elections with Twitter: What 140 Characters Reveal about Political Sentiment , 2010, ICWSM.

[20]  Panagiotis Takis Metaxas,et al.  How (Not) to Predict Elections , 2011, 2011 IEEE Third Int'l Conference on Privacy, Security, Risk and Trust and 2011 IEEE Third Int'l Conference on Social Computing.

[21]  W. Bennett,et al.  A New Era of Minimal Effects? The Changing Foundations of Political Communication , 2008 .

[22]  Nick Chater,et al.  Using big data to predict collective behavior in the real world 1 , 2014, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.

[23]  Andreas Graefe,et al.  Combining Forecasts: An Application to Elections , 2013 .

[24]  Alison J. Head,et al.  How Today's College Students use Wikipedia for Course-related Research , 2010, First Monday.

[25]  David Rothschild,et al.  Forecasting Elections Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases , 2009 .

[26]  I. Ajzen,et al.  Predicting and Changing Behavior: The Reasoned Action Approach , 2009 .

[27]  Fabio Wasserfallen,et al.  Learning and the diffusion of regime contention in the Arab Spring , 2015 .

[28]  P. Sheeran.  Intention—Behavior Relations: A Conceptual and Empirical Review , 2002 .

[29]  David Rothschild,et al.  Combining forecasts for elections: Accurate, relevant, and timely , 2015 .

[30]  Patrick Hummel,et al.  Fundamental models for forecasting elections at the state level , 2014 .

[31]  Robert S. Erikson,et al.  Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors , 2008 .

[32]  Tom Rosenstiel,et al.  Political Polling and the New Media Culture: A Case of More Being Less , 2005 .

[33]  Josh Pasek,et al.  Predicting Elections: Considering Tools to Pool the Polls , 2015 .

[34]  Robert S. Erikson,et al.  Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts , 1996 .

[35]  T. Chai,et al.  Root mean square error (RMSE) or mean absolute error (MAE)? – Arguments against avoiding RMSE in the literature , 2014 .

[36]  Robert S. Erikson,et al.  Presidential Polls as a Time Series: The Case of 1996 , 1999 .

[37]  Michael S. Lewis-Beck,et al.  Election Forecasting for Turbulent Times , 2012, PS: Political Science & Politics.