Leakage Current Prediction for High Voltage Insulators Flashover Based on Extreme Value Theory

While the transmission voltage levels are increasing higher and higher to meet the needs of industrial automation in China, flashover of insulators are seriously threaten the reliability of power system. Leakage Current (LC) is one of the most important characteristics of flashover on high voltage insulators, thus the prediction of LC near to flashover offers significant information to prevent flashover. In this paper, Extreme Value Risk Function (EVRF), prediction theory of the small probability of high-risk events, is used to forecast LC value on the basis of calculating LC Probability Density Function (PDF) by kernel density estimator (KDE). The results show that this method is very effective and successful to predict LC which is helpful to relevant department to make safe operation of power system.

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