North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability

AbstractThis is the second part of a three-part paper on North American climate in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that evaluates the twentieth-century simulations of intraseasonal to multidecadal variability and teleconnections with North American climate. Overall, the multimodel ensemble does reasonably well at reproducing observed variability in several aspects, but it does less well at capturing observed teleconnections, with implications for future projections examined in part three of this paper. In terms of intraseasonal variability, almost half of the models examined can reproduce observed variability in the eastern Pacific and most models capture the midsummer drought over Central America. The multimodel mean replicates the density of traveling tropical synoptic-scale disturbances but with large spread among the models. On the other hand, the coarse resolution of the models means that tropical cyclone frequencies are underpredicted in the Atlantic and eastern North Pa...

[1]  S. Camargo.  Global and Regional Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the CMIP5 Models , 2013 .

[2]  A. Mariotti,et al.  North American Climate in CMIP5 experiments. Part I: Evaluation of historical simulations of continental and regional climatology , 2013 .

[3]  S. Xie,et al.  Interdecadal Amplitude Modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Its Impact on Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability* , 2013 .

[4]  G. Meehl,et al.  Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation , 2013 .

[5]  Xiao-dong Liu,et al.  Intermodel Variability and Mechanism Attribution of Central and Southeastern U.S. Anomalous Cooling in the Twentieth Century as Simulated by CMIP5 Models , 2013 .

[6]  Youmin Tang,et al.  The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System. Part I: Models and Initialization , 2013 .

[7]  Sanjiv Kumar,et al.  Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation Trends and Long-Term Persistence in CMIP5 Twentieth-Century Climate Simulations , 2013 .

[8]  S. Nigam,et al.  The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in twentieth century climate simulations: uneven progress from CMIP3 to CMIP5 , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[9]  E. Maloney,et al.  Remote Forcing versus Local Feedback of East Pacific Intraseasonal Variability during Boreal Summer , 2013 .

[10]  P. Dirmeyer,et al.  Multidecadal Climate Variability and the “Warming Hole” in North America: Results from CMIP5 Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century Climate Simulations* , 2013 .

[11]  E. Maloney,et al.  Simulations of the Eastern North Pacific Intraseasonal Variability in CMIP5 GCMs , 2013 .

[12]  X. Xin,et al.  Introduction of CMIP5 Experiments Carried out with the Climate System Models of Beijing Climate Center: Introduction of CMIP5 Experiments Carried out with the Climate System Models of Beijing Climate Center , 2013 .

[13]  Yangchun Li,et al.  The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system model, Spectral Version 2: FGOALS-s2 , 2013, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

[14]  Lixin Wu,et al.  Western pacific warm pool and ENSO asymmetry in CMIP3 models , 2013, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

[15]  Keith W. Dixon,et al.  Have Aerosols Caused the Observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability , 2013 .

[16]  R. Seager,et al.  A SIMPLE MECHANISM FOR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MIDSUMMER DROUGHT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA (edited by H. Diaz). , 2013 .

[17]  De-Zheng Sun.  The Diabatic and Nonlinear Aspects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: Implications for Its Past and Future Behavior , 2013 .

[18]  S. Nigam,et al.  AMO’s structure and climate footprint in observations and IPCC AR5 climate simulations , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[19]  Jin‐Yi Yu,et al.  The enhanced drying effect of Central-Pacific El Niño on US winter , 2013 .

[20]  S. Bony,et al.  Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[21]  S. Weaver.  Factors Associated with Decadal Variability in Great Plains Summertime Surface Temperatures , 2013 .

[22]  Q. Hu,et al.  AMO-Forced Regional Processes Affecting Summertime Precipitation Variations in the Central United States , 2013 .

[23]  H. Douville,et al.  The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[24]  J. Jungclaus,et al.  Multidecadal-to-centennial SST variability in the MPI-ESM simulation ensemble for the last millennium , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[25]  S. Xie,et al.  Origins of tropical‐wide SST biases in CMIP multi‐model ensembles , 2012 .

[26]  De-Zheng Sun,et al.  The Effect of ENSO Events on the Tropical Pacific Mean Climate: Insights from an Analytical Model , 2012 .

[27]  Antje Weisheimer,et al.  Reliability of decadal predictions , 2012 .

[28]  Zhongshi Zhang,et al.  Pre-industrial and mid-Pliocene simulations with NorESM-L: AGCM simulations , 2012 .

[29]  Tong Lee,et al.  The changing impact of El Niño on US winter temperatures , 2012 .

[30]  S. Dong,et al.  Multidecadal Covariability of North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature, African Dust, Sahel Rainfall, and Atlantic Hurricanes , 2012 .

[31]  Daehyun Kim,et al.  The Tropical Subseasonal Variability Simulated in the NASA GISS General Circulation Model , 2012 .

[32]  Toru Nozawa,et al.  MIROC4h—A New High-Resolution Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model , 2012 .

[33]  Seon Tae Kim,et al.  The two types of ENSO in CMIP5 models , 2012 .

[34]  J. Rogers,et al.  U.S. Diurnal Temperature Range Variability and Regional Causal Mechanisms, 1901–2002 , 2012 .

[35]  P. Webster,et al.  Evaluation of short‐term climate change prediction in multi‐model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts , 2012 .

[36]  Nicolas Bellouin,et al.  Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability , 2012, Nature.

[37]  Karl E. Taylor,et al.  An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design , 2012 .

[38]  H. Tsujino,et al.  A New Global Climate Model of the Meteorological Research Institute: MRI-CGCM3 —Model Description and Basic Performance— , 2012 .

[39]  S. Schubert,et al.  Simulation of the intraseasonal variability over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ in climate models , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[40]  Reto Knutti,et al.  Mapping model agreement on future climate projections , 2011 .

[41]  B. Guan,et al.  Key role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in 20th century drought and wet periods over the Great Plains , 2011 .

[42]  J. Lamarque,et al.  The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations , 2011 .

[43]  N. Bond,et al.  North Pacific Decadal Variability and Climate Change in the IPCC AR4 Models , 2011 .

[44]  I. Medhaug,et al.  North Atlantic 20th century multidecadal variability in coupled climate models: sea surface temperature and ocean overturning circulation , 2011 .

[45]  J. Thepaut,et al.  The ERA‐Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system , 2011 .

[46]  Hui Wang,et al.  Statistical–Dynamical Predictions of Seasonal North Atlantic Hurricane Activity , 2011 .

[47]  K. Denman,et al.  Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases , 2011 .

[48]  Elinor R. Martin,et al.  Modulation of Caribbean Precipitation by the Madden–Julian Oscillation , 2011 .

[49]  Facultad De Ingenier Ia.  UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUT ONOMA DE M EXICO PROGRAMA DE MAESTR IA Y DOCTORADO EN INGENIER IA , 2011 .

[50]  H. Hasumi,et al.  Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5: Mean States, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity , 2010, Journal of Climate.

[51]  A. Sterl,et al.  EC-Earth A Seamless earth-System Prediction Approach in Action , 2010 .

[52]  Ming Zhao,et al.  Retrospective Forecasts of the Hurricane Season Using a Global Atmospheric Model Assuming Persistence of SST Anomalies , 2010 .

[53]  G. Kiladis,et al.  Tracking and Mean Structure of Easterly Waves over the Intra-Americas Sea , 2010 .

[54]  E. Volodin,et al.  Simulating present-day climate with the INMCM4.0 coupled model of the atmospheric and oceanic general circulations , 2010 .

[55]  Seon Tae Kim,et al.  Identification of Central‐Pacific and Eastern‐Pacific types of ENSO in CMIP3 models , 2010 .

[56]  Ramaswamy,et al.  The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL global coupled model CM3 , 2011 .

[57]  K. Mo.  Interdecadal Modulation of the Impact of ENSO on Precipitation and Temperature over the United States , 2010 .

[58]  Tong Lee,et al.  Increasing intensity of El Niño in the central‐equatorial Pacific , 2010 .

[59]  Francis W. Zwiers,et al.  Probabilistic estimates of recent changes in temperature: a multi-scale attribution analysis , 2010 .

[60]  S. Nigam,et al.  SST-North American Hydroclimate Links in AMIP Simulations of the Drought Working Group Models: A Proxy for the Idealized Drought Modeling Experiments , 2010 .

[61]  Reto Knutti,et al.  Challenges in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models , 2010 .

[62]  Hiroyuki Murakami,et al.  The Tropical Cyclone Climate Model Intercomparison Project , 2010 .

[63]  C. J. Neumann,et al.  The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS): unifying tropical cyclone data. , 2010 .

[64]  Reto Knutti,et al.  The end of model democracy? , 2010 .

[65]  F. Bryan,et al.  Climate Dynamics: Why Does Climate Vary? , 2010 .

[66]  Shian-Jiann Lin,et al.  Simulations of global hurricane climatology, interannual variability, and response to global warming using a 50-km resolution GCM. , 2009 .

[67]  Chunzai Wang,et al.  Co‐variability of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific , 2009 .

[68]  R. Dickinson,et al.  Detection and attribution of anthropogenic forcing to diurnal temperature range changes from 1950 to 1999: comparing multi-model simulations with observations , 2009 .

[69]  Richard Neale,et al.  Application of MJO Simulation Diagnostics to Climate Models , 2009 .

[70]  R. Neale,et al.  An Evaluation of ENSO Asymmetry in the Community Climate System Models: A View from the Subsurface , 2009 .

[71]  C. Deser,et al.  A U.S. CLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results , 2009 .

[72]  K. Oshima,et al.  An evaluation of reproducibility of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the CMIP3 simulations. , 2009 .

[73]  Sanjiv Kumar,et al.  Streamflow trends in Indiana: Effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains , 2009 .

[74]  M. Hoerling,et al.  Attribution of the Seasonality and Regionality in Climate Trends over the United States during 1950–2000 , 2009 .

[75]  Susan Solomon,et al.  Spatial and seasonal patterns in climate change, temperatures, and precipitation across the United States , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[76]  A. Hall,et al.  September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100 , 2009 .

[77]  P. Jones,et al.  The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project , 2009 .

[78]  F. Sun,et al.  A 10–15-Yr Modulation Cycle of ENSO Intensity , 2009 .

[79]  R. Seager,et al.  Forced and Internal Twentieth-Century SST Trends in the North Atlantic* , 2009 .

[80]  D. Waliser,et al.  Two dominant subseasonal variability modes of the eastern Pacific ITCZ , 2009 .

[81]  H. Kao.  Eastern Pacific and central Pacific types of ENSO , 2009 .

[82]  Jong,et al.  Two Types of El Niño Events: Cold Tongue El Niño and Warm Pool El Niño , 2009 .

[83]  Kenneth E. Shirley,et al.  Designing Index-Based Weather Insurance for Farmers In Central America: Final Report to the World Bank Commodity Risk Management Group, ARD , 2009 .

[84]  K. Cook,et al.  Springtime Intensification of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet and Midwest Precipitation in GCM Simulations of the Twenty-First Century , 2008 .

[85]  E. Guilyardi,et al.  UNDERSTANDING EL NINO IN OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS : Progress and Challenges , 2008 .

[86]  G. McCabe,et al.  Associations of multi-decadal sea-surface temperature variability with US drought , 2008 .

[87]  G. Vecchi,et al.  Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions , 2008 .

[88]  Thomas M. Smith,et al.  Improvements to NOAA’s Historical Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis (1880–2006) , 2008 .

[89]  D. Waliser,et al.  Northward propagation of the subseasonal variability over the eastern Pacific warm pool , 2008 .

[90]  M. Cronin,et al.  Horizontal and vertical structure of easterly waves in the Pacific ITCZ , 2008 .

[91]  S. Nigam,et al.  Variability of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet: Large Scale Circulation Context and Hydroclimate Impacts , 2008 .

[92]  Kerry A. Emanuel,et al.  Hurricanes and Global Warming: Results from Downscaling IPCC AR4 Simulations , 2008 .

[93]  M. Dettinger,et al.  Significance of model credibility in estimating climate projection distributions for regional hydroclimatological risk assessments , 2008 .

[94]  N. Diffenbaugh,et al.  Extension and Intensification of the Meso-American mid-summer drought in the twenty-first century , 2008 .

[95]  Wolfgang A. Müller,et al.  ENSO teleconnections in projections of future climate in ECHAM5/MPI-OM , 2008 .

[96]  Swadhin K. Behera,et al.  El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection , 2007 .

[97]  Jin‐Yi Yu,et al.  Decadal changes of ENSO persistence barrier in SST and ocean heat content indices: 1958–2001 , 2007 .

[98]  D. Chelton,et al.  Subseasonal SST Variability in the Tropical Eastern North Pacific during Boreal Summer , 2007 .

[99]  Y. Hong,et al.  The TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): Quasi-Global, Multiyear, Combined-Sensor Precipitation Estimates at Fine Scales , 2007 .

[100]  Lennart Bengtsson,et al.  How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate? , 2007 .

[101]  K. Emanuel,et al.  Tropical cyclone genesis potential index in climate models , 2007 .

[102]  E. Maloney,et al.  Satellite and Buoy Observations of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Variability in the Tropical Northeast Pacific , 2007 .

[103]  J. Räisänen,et al.  How reliable are climate models? , 2007 .

[104]  K. Kunkel,et al.  Can CGCMs Simulate the Twentieth-Century “Warming Hole” in the Central United States? , 2006 .

[105]  Daniel S. Wilks,et al.  On “Field Significance” and the False Discovery Rate , 2006 .

[106]  S. Nigam,et al.  IPCC's Twentieth-Century Climate Simulations: Varied Representations of North American Hydroclimate Variability , 2006 .

[107]  R. Burgman,et al.  A Simple Mechanism for ENSO Residuals and Asymmetry , 2006 .

[108]  Christopher W. Landsea,et al.  Influences of the Atlantic Warm Pool on Western Hemisphere Summer Rainfall and Atlantic Hurricanes , 2006 .

[109]  Jun Yoshimura,et al.  Tropical Cyclone Climatology in a Global-Warming Climate as Simulated in a 20 km-Mesh Global Atmospheric Model: Frequency and Wind Intensity Analyses , 2006 .

[110]  Tao Zhang,et al.  A regulatory effect of ENSO on the time‐mean thermal stratification of the equatorial upper ocean , 2006 .

[111]  D. Hartmann,et al.  The effect of the MJO on the North American Monsoon , 2006 .

[112]  A. Hall,et al.  Using the current seasonal cycle to constrain snow albedo feedback in future climate change , 2006 .

[113]  Russell S. Vose,et al.  Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe: An update through 2004 , 2005 .

[114]  C. Bretherton,et al.  Variability in the southerly flow into the eastern pacific ITCZ , 2005 .

[115]  M. Collins,et al.  El Niño in a changing climate: a multi-model study , 2005 .

[116]  Jeff Knight,et al.  A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate , 2005 .

[117]  D. E. Harrison,et al.  On the definition of El Niño and associated seasonal average U.S. weather anomalies , 2005 .

[118]  R. Sutton,et al.  Atlantic Ocean Forcing of North American and European Summer Climate , 2005, Science.

[119]  J. Hansen,et al.  Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications , 2005, Science.

[120]  T. D. Mitchell,et al.  An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high‐resolution grids , 2005 .

[121]  E. Maloney,et al.  A Modeling Study of Summertime East Pacific Wind-Induced Ocean–Atmosphere Exchange in the Intraseasonal Oscillation , 2005 .

[122]  A. Barnston,et al.  A statistical assessment of tropical cyclone activity in atmospheric general circulation models , 2005 .

[123]  M. Latif,et al.  Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability and Its Relation to Decadal Modulations of ENSO , 2004 .

[124]  G. Danabasoglu,et al.  The Community Climate System Model Version 4 , 2011 .

[125]  R. Arritt,et al.  Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a “warming hole” , 2004 .

[126]  David J. Karoly,et al.  Diurnal temperature range as an index of global climate change during the twentieth century , 2004 .

[127]  Michael A. Palecki,et al.  Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States , 2004, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[128]  S. Schubert,et al.  Causes of long-term drought in the U , 2004 .

[129]  J. Janowiak,et al.  The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-Present) , 2003 .

[130]  E. Maloney,et al.  The Amplification of East Pacific Madden–Julian Oscillation Convection and Wind Anomalies during June–November , 2003 .

[131]  H. Drange,et al.  The sensitivity of the present‐day Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to freshwater forcing , 2003 .

[132]  Elizabeth C. Kent,et al.  Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century , 2003 .

[133]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Strong El Niño events and nonlinear dynamical heating , 2003 .

[134]  M. Hoerling,et al.  The Perfect Ocean for Drought , 2003, Science.

[135]  Suzana J. Camargo,et al.  Improving the Detection and Tracking of Tropical Cyclones in Atmospheric General Circulation Models , 2002 .

[136]  Gregory J. McCabe,et al.  A step increase in streamflow in the conterminous United States , 2002 .

[137]  W. M. Gray,et al.  The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications , 2001, Science.

[138]  Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez,et al.  The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. , 2001 .

[139]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Indices of El Niño Evolution , 2001 .

[140]  Kevin I. Hodges,et al.  African Easterly Wave Variability and Its Relationship to Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity , 2001 .

[141]  M. Collins,et al.  The internal climate variability of HadCM3, a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments , 2001 .

[142]  A. Barnston,et al.  Dominant Factors Influencing the Seasonal Predictability of U.S. Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature , 2000 .

[143]  Michael E. Mann,et al.  Observed and Simulated Multidecadal Variability in the Northern Hemisphere , 1999 .

[144]  R A Kerr,et al.  A North Atlantic Climate Pacemaker for the Centuries , 2000, Science.

[145]  Dennis L. Hartmann,et al.  Modulation of Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes by the Madden-Julian Oscillation , 2000 .

[146]  Douglas W. Nychka,et al.  Statistical significance of trends and trend differences in layer-average atmospheric temperature time series , 2000 .

[147]  E. Maloney,et al.  Modulation of hurricane activity in the gulf of mexico by the madden-julian oscillation , 2000, Science.

[148]  R. Weisberg,et al.  The 1997–98 El Niño Evolution Relative to Previous El Niño Events , 2000 .

[149]  K. Trenberth,et al.  Effects of Clouds, Soil Moisture, Precipitation, and Water Vapor on Diurnal Temperature Range , 1999 .

[150]  V. Magaña,et al.  The midsummer drought over Mexico and Central America , 1999 .

[151]  Kevin I. Hodges,et al.  Adaptive Constraints for Feature Tracking , 1999 .

[152]  V. Kousky,et al.  Intraseasonal (30–60 day) variability in the global tropics: principal modes and their evolution , 1999 .

[153]  David B. Stephenson,et al.  The “normality” of El Niño , 1999 .

[154]  Thomas R. Karl,et al.  Secular Trends of Precipitation Amount, Frequency, and Intensity in the United States , 1998 .

[155]  J. Wallace,et al.  A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production , 1997 .

[156]  J. Wallace,et al.  ENSO-like Interdecadal Variability: 1900–93 , 1997 .

[157]  Kevin I. Hodges,et al.  Feature Tracking on the Unit Sphere , 1995 .

[158]  M. Neil Ward,et al.  Variability of summer rainfall over tropical north Africa (1906–92): Observations and modelling , 1995 .

[159]  L. Bengtsson,et al.  Hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation , 1995 .

[160]  J. R. Wallis,et al.  Hydro-Climatological Trends in the Continental United States, 1948-88 , 1994 .

[161]  C. Ropelewski,et al.  Global and Regional Scale Precipitation Patterns Associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation , 1987 .

[162]  Klaus M. Weickmann,et al.  30–60 Day Atmospheric Oscillations: Composite Life Cycles of Convection and Circulation Anomalies , 1987 .

[163]  T. Palmer,et al.  Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures, 1901–85 , 1986, Nature.

[164]  M. Kanamitsu,et al.  Simulation of hurricane-type vortics in ageneral circulation model , 1982 .

[165]  B. R. Jarvinen,et al.  A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic basin, 1886-1977 : contents, limitations, and uses , 1978 .

[166]  S. Manabe,et al.  Tropical Circulation in a Time-Integration of a Global Model of the Atmosphere , 1970 .

[167]  P. Sen.  Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall's Tau , 1968 .

[168]  W. H. Portig.  SOME CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA OF SALVADOR, CENTRAL AMERICA , 1961 .

[169]  H. Theil.  A Rank-Invariant Method of Linear and Polynomial Regression Analysis , 1992 .