Analysis of air pollution reduction and climate change mitigation in the industry sector of Yangtze River Delta in China

China is now undergoing a fast process of industrialization, with the industry sector playing an important role in the overall economy. Among the many economic areas in China, Yangtze River Delta (YRD) takes the lead. The macro economy development and energy use status quo of both China and YRD are depicted, the past and current situation of air pollution and GHGs emissions is presented, and detailed national and local policies are reviewed. GAINS-China model is deployed in this study to evaluate the air pollution reduction and climate change mitigation achievements in the industry sector under the current policy of the three areas (i.e. Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai) in YRD from 2005 to 2030. According to the simulation results, the total population would grow marginally while the economy of YRD will keep booming in the next two decades. The total energy consumption of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai in 2030 would be 2.36, 2.61 and 1.81 times that of 2005, with the industry sector still playing the biggest part. SO2 emissions would be well under-control by 2030. The NOX emissions all show steady growing trends, while the PM2.5 emissions show different trends for three areas. The ensemble average years of life lost has a complex correlation with the total population and the PM2.5 concentration. CO2 emissions are still in predominant position among all the GHGs emissions, showing a steady growing trend towards 2030. All GHGs emissions amount in YRD would be 1.76 times that of 2005. The differences among the emissions in the three areas may due to reasons like economy scale, industrial composition, energy structure, and enforcement rate of policy. The uncertainties of this study may come from inaccurate prediction of scenario parameters and the expected policy changes in the future, and the emissions from the restructure of industry should be considered as well. In terms of achieving sustainable industrial development, YRD's governments should restrict the scale of energy-intensive industries, improve the primary energy structure, and take co-benefits concepts and methods more into policy-making processes.

[1]  Zhen Cheng,et al.  Energy demand and carbon emissions under different development scenarios for Shanghai, China , 2010 .

[2]  William W. Nazaroff,et al.  Global Intraurban Intake Fractions for Primary Air Pollutants from Vehicles and Other Distributed Sources , 2012, Environmental science & technology.

[3]  Yong Geng,et al.  Co-benefit evaluation for urban public transportation sector – a case of Shenyang, China , 2013 .

[4]  Jens Borken-Kleefeld,et al.  Cost-effective control of air quality and greenhouse gases in Europe: Modeling and policy applications , 2011, Environ. Model. Softw..

[5]  Klaus Hubacek,et al.  A "carbonizing dragon": China's fast growing CO2 emissions revisited. , 2011, Environmental science & technology.

[6]  Jiming Hao,et al.  Emission inventory of primary pollutants and chemical speciation in 2010 for the Yangtze River Delta region, China , 2013 .

[7]  Markus Amann,et al.  Co-benefits of post-2012 global climate mitigation policies , 2013, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change.

[8]  Tonni Agustiono Kurniawan,et al.  Promoting win–win situations in climate change mitigation, local environmental quality and development in Asian cities through co-benefits , 2013 .

[9]  Gernot Wagner,et al.  Energy content of world trade , 2010 .

[10]  Danièle Revel,et al.  BP Energy Outlook 2035 , 2015 .

[11]  H. Dulal,et al.  Greenhouse gas emission reduction options for cities: Finding the “Coincidence of Agendas” between local priorities and climate change mitigation objectives , 2013 .

[12]  Huaqing,et al.  China＇s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change , 2010 .

[13]  Dale W. Jorgenson,et al.  “Co-benefits” of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policies in China: An Integrated Top-Down and Bottom-Up Modeling Analysis , 2008 .

[14]  David G. Streets,et al.  Reductions in emissions of local air pollutants and co-benefits of Chinese energy policy: a Shanghai case study , 2006 .

[15]  Wenbo Dong,et al.  Analysis of the co-benefits of climate change mitigation and air pollution reduction in China , 2013 .

[16]  Nie Rui,et al.  Analysis of Regional Differences in Energy Consumption and Energy saving Potential for Yangtze River Delta , 2011 .

[17]  J. Corfee-Morlot,et al.  Co-Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation Policies: Literature Review and New Results , 2009 .

[18]  Mark Jaccard,et al.  Achieving CO2 emission reduction and the co-benefits of local air pollution abatement in the transportation sector of China , 2012 .

[19]  Kebin He,et al.  Integrating mitigation of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in Chinese cities: development of GAINS-City model for Beijing , 2013 .

[20]  Jens Borken-Kleefeld,et al.  GAINS Asia. A tool to combat air pollution and climate change simultaneously. Methodology , 2008 .

[21]  Ming Zhang,et al.  Decomposing the decoupling of energy-related CO2 emissions and economic growth in Jiangsu Province , 2013 .

[22]  Katsumi Yoshida,et al.  S12 AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS , 1988 .

[23]  Yan Xu,et al.  Local air pollutant emission reduction and ancillary carbon benefits of SO2 control policies: Application of AIM/CGE model to China , 2009, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[24]  Liang Dong,et al.  Regional disparity and cost-effective SO2 pollution control in China: A case study in 5 mega-cities , 2013 .

[25]  B. Armstrong,et al.  Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: low-carbon electricity generation , 2009, The Lancet.

[26]  Jens Borken-Kleefeld,et al.  GAINS Asia. Scenarios for cost-effective control of air pollution and greenhouse gases in China , 2008 .

[27]  Kebin He,et al.  Co-benefits from energy policies in China , 2010 .

[28]  Johannes Bollen,et al.  Local air pollution and global climate change. A combined cost-benefit analysis. , 2009 .

[29]  David G. Streets,et al.  Emission inventory of anthropogenic air pollutants and VOC species in the Yangtze River Delta region, China , 2011 .