Air pollution and health in Scotland: a multicity study.

This paper presents an epidemiological study investigating the effects of long-term air pollution exposure on public health in Scotland, focusing on the 4 major urban areas, Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh, and Glasgow. In particular, the associations between respiratory hospital admissions in 2005 and exposure to both PM(10) and NO(2) between 2002 and 2004 are estimated using a small-area ecological design. The implementation of such studies requires careful consideration of a number of statistical issues, including how to model spatial correlation, identifiability of the model parameters, and the possible effects of ecological bias. The results show that long-term exposures (over 3 years) to PM(10) and NO(2) are significantly associated with respiratory hospital admissions in Edinburgh and Glasgow, whereas the risks for Aberdeen and Dundee are generally positive but nonsignificant.

[1]  David N. Pellow,et al.  Environmental justice: human health and environmental inequalities. , 2006, Annual review of public health.

[2]  Sw. Banerjee,et al.  Hierarchical Modeling and Analysis for Spatial Data , 2003 .

[3]  J. Schwartz,et al.  Reduction in fine particulate air pollution and mortality: Extended follow-up of the Harvard Six Cities study. , 2006, American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine.

[4]  Bradley P. Carlin,et al.  Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit , 2002 .

[5]  David B. Dunson,et al.  Bayesian Data Analysis , 2010 .

[6]  Johan P Mackenbach,et al.  Socioeconomic inequalities in morbidity and mortality in western Europe , 1997, The Lancet.

[7]  G. Prescott,et al.  Urban air pollution and cardiopulmonary ill health: a 14.5 year time series study. , 1998, Occupational and environmental medicine.

[8]  Gavin Shaddick,et al.  Long-term associations of outdoor air pollution with mortality in Great Britain , 2007, Thorax.

[9]  J. Besag,et al.  On conditional and intrinsic autoregressions , 1995 .

[10]  R. Burnett,et al.  Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution. , 2002, JAMA.

[11]  R. Burnett,et al.  Spatial Analysis of Air Pollution and Mortality in Los Angeles , 2005, Epidemiology.

[12]  J Schwartz,et al.  Confounding and Effect Modification in the Short-Term Effects of Ambient Particles on Total Mortality: Results from 29 European Cities within the APHEA2 Project , 2001, Epidemiology.

[13]  R. Haining,et al.  Outdoor Air Pollution and Stroke in Sheffield, United Kingdom: A Small-Area Level Geographical Study , 2005, Stroke.

[14]  Ruth Salway,et al.  A statistical framework for ecological and aggregate studies , 2001 .

[15]  A. Gelman Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models (comment on article by Browne and Draper) , 2004 .

[16]  J. Besag,et al.  Bayesian image restoration, with two applications in spatial statistics , 1991 .

[17]  J. Firket,et al.  Fog along the Meuse valley , 1936 .

[18]  I. Beverland,et al.  Interacting effects of particulate pollution and cold temperature on cardiorespiratory mortality in Scotland , 2007, Occupational and Environmental Medicine.

[19]  D. Vågerö,et al.  Socioeconomic inequalities in morbidity and mortality in western Europe , 1997, The Lancet.

[20]  D Hémon,et al.  Comparison of relative risks obtained in ecological and individual studies: some methodological considerations. , 1987, International journal of epidemiology.

[21]  Alastair H Leyland,et al.  Inequalities in mortality in Scotland 1981-2001 , 2001 .

[22]  Robert Williams,et al.  Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics and the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation , 2005, IASSIST Conference.

[23]  P. Diggle,et al.  Model‐based geostatistics , 2007 .

[24]  Duncan Lee,et al.  Modelling the effects of air pollution on health using Bayesian dynamic generalised linear models , 2007, 0710.3473.

[25]  Jon Wakefield,et al.  Disease mapping and spatial regression with count data. , 2007, Biostatistics.

[26]  Scott L. Zeger,et al.  Air Pollution and Mortality , 2002 .