Estimation of annual yield and quality of Valncia orange related to monthly water deficiencies

The State of Sao Paulo, Brazil is the major orange producer in the world. The “Valencia” orange is one of the most important cultivars for industry with a high efficiency of processed juice. Climate is the main factor of influence for citrus yield and quality and its study is fundamental for understanding the climatic requirements of the crop. The estimation of yield and quality by agrometeorological models helps to understand the effects of climate on crop cycle, besides being an option for orchards planning activities. Understanding the relationships between water deficiencies (DEF), phenological phases, yield (fruits per box (FRBOX) and quality of “Valencia” orange grafted on rangpur lime (VACR) are important to improve the water use in the production areas and to provide information about water stress for plants during its cycle. The present study aimed to investigate the influence of monthly DEF on yield and quality parameters of VACR, in order to develop agrometeorological models for the main four producers regions of State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Data of 13 years were used for analysis, being the period from 2001 to 2009 used for calibration and from 2010 to 2012 for validation. Multiple linear regression for model construction was used. All the developed agrometeorological models were accurate, ranging the values of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 5.25 to 9.27% for mean annual yield (FRBOX) and 2.74 to 14.14% for quality (RATIO) among all regions. The angular coefficients indicate which phenological phase of VACR is more sensitive to DEF. Bauru and Limeira FRBOX was related to DEF during bud formation and vegetative dormancy. Yield at Bebedouro were related to DEF between vegetative dormancy and flowering and at Matao bud formation. Fruit quality was more sensitive to DEF during maturity at all regions.    Key words: Modeling, estimate, water deficiency, “Valencia” orange.

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